Luftwaffe focused in the East

[Jenisch]

Supposing a scenario were Germany is not at war with the West, and the Luftwaffe is fully deployed against the Soviets, could the outcome of the Eastern Front be significantly more favourable to Germany by it's improved aerial situation?

[michaelmaltby]

".... could the outcome of the Eastern Front be significantly more favourable to Germany by it's improved aerial situation? "

Not with the same aircraft .... but ... with long range, high altitude, fast heavy bombers ... perhaps.

MM

[Glider]

If germany wasn't at war in the West then presumably they could ahve started the war in the East 12 months earlier and that could have made a huge difference. The new russian aircraft which were just entering service wouldn't have been in the picture, ditto the T34/KV1 tanks.

For the Luftwaffe the only big difference is that the 109's would have been 109E not 109F subtypes.

[tyrodtom]

How could Germany get to Russia without going thru Poland, and either touching off a war with England and France?

And even if that didn't start a war, by the time they rolled across Poland, there would no longer be a big surprize by the time they got to the Russian- Polish border.

[davebender]

Luftwaffe units operating in Russia would have a lot more fuel which would allow a higher sortie rate. Replacement pilots would be better trained too. That should make a considerable difference at Kursk where the Luftwaffe historically had only two thirds of the required fuel and, like the Heer, had to transfer their best units west half way through the battle.

[davebender]

IMO there's a better chance of no German - Soviet war.

If Britain, France and the USA don't align with Stalin the nations of Central and Eastern Europe will align with Germany for mutual protection. Perhaps even Poland. Stalin will steer clear unless Britain, France and the USA support the Soviet Union.

[Glider]

I would say that there is no chance that the UK USA and France would align with Russia, Stalin was loathed by them. In which case the risk increases as the nations of Central and Eastern Europe align with Germany.

[DonL]

@ Jenisch

To answer your question Jenisch, it would be realy important, if there was a war in the west or without any war in the west?

If we took the scenario without any war in the west and we look at the numbers, I would say a big yes!

The LW lost someting about 3000 first rated frontline a/c's (Bf 109E, Bf 110, Ju 87, He 111, Ju 88, Do17, Do15 and Ju 52)at the french campaign, BoB and the Mediterranean area till June 1941.
To this losses you can coun't the JG 26, JG 2 (France June 1941), the X Fliegerkorps at Kreta (June 1941)and air fleet 5 at Norway (June 1941 plus some NGZ and ZG at Germany (June 1941).

So if we take this conservative the LW could deploy 2500-3000 more first rated frontline a/c's at June 41 against the Soviet Union.
That would be near 100% more a/c's then the original deployed 3000 a/c's.

So the LW would attack with something between 5500-6000 a/c's at June 22.1941.
To my opinion this would be a very very big plus to the break through ability of the Wehrmacht on a tactical level and the possibility of the VVS to regenerate after the very very big losses at the first days would be much more difficult on a strategic level. The LW would have near 3000 fighter in the air, so the air activity of the VVS could be hold to zero. Also there would be much more a/c's on hand to attack the soviet supply lines!

The key element in this scenario would be how fast the Wehrmacht could be benefit from this break through ability and could control important junctions, harbour etc. The real question would be how long and far could 5500- 6000 a/c be supplied.

To my very own opinion it would be very very importnt to control the Baltic and the North of the Soviet Union (till Leningrad) very fast (July/August 1941) to have the possibility to ship supply to the Baltic and Soviet Union East Sea harbour, that would be a real important benefit to the supply lines. Everything else is speculation but with 2500-3000 more a/c's there would be other possibilties as in the real campaign.

[davebender]

Why wouldn't the Uk, USA and France do what they did historically during 1939 to 1945?

[Jenisch]

Guys, let's not discuss much politics here. My objective is mainly compare the Luftwaffe and the VVS against each other in this scenario.

[gjs238]

One could even partially explore this thread...
What if Germany had not entered North Afrika?
How many more resources does that leave for the Ost Front?

[bobbysocks]

is there no battle of france? or the uk and germany come to peaceful terms afterwards? either way now you are talking no lend lease...? or is america and the west still trading with the soviets <<< and that would strain relations between them and the reich like it did with the us sending supplies to the uk. a powder keg either way. but without the HUGE influx of steel, ammo, medicine, airplanes, machinery, trucks...etc, etc, etc. russia is in a world of hurt. without hurricanes and p 39s as a stop gap measurei think the vvs would be doomed. they lost 6000 or 7000 planes the first week iirc. hard to make that up when you are on the run. germany may not end up taking the entire country but would own a hell of a lot of lot of russian real estate before they got tired of fighting.

[davebender]

Let's try an organized approach. This list isn't complete but it's a start.

JG2. Historically in France.
JG26. Historically in France.

At least 4 ZG of Me-110 fighter-bombers as they will not be diverted to the night fighter force.

Luftflotte 4. Historically in Balkans.
…..KG2.
…..KG3.
…..KG51.
…..JG27.
…..JG54.
…..JG77.
…..StG1.
…..StG2.
…..StG3.
…..StG77.
…..Hundreds of additional Ju-52 transport aircraft.
…..A bunch of badly needed logistical units.
These units would be intact and at full strength rather then getting fed into Barbarossa in bits and pieces.

Luftflotte 2. Historically in Italy and North Africa.
…..KG54.
…..KG77.
…..KG100.
…..LG1.
…..JG53.
…..Hundreds of additional Ju-52 transport aircraft.
…..A bunch of badly needed logistical units.

About 1,500 additional heavy AT guns.
…..Historically Germany produced about 3,000 8.8cm weapons 1939 to 1941 and most were to defend against RAF Bomber Command. If Britain doesn’t declare war then Germany will probably procure half as many 8.8cm AA guns plus 1,500 additional 7.5cm PaK40 AT guns.

The Luftwaffe parachute division historically employed on Crete.
The Luftwaffe parachute brigade historically employed in North Africa.

Units from Finland, Romania and Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia etc.
.....Without BoB losses each of these nations can probably equip a JG with modern Me-109 fighter aircraft plus a KG with modern He-111 bomber aircraft.
.....Finland and Romania will also have a StG equipped with Ju-87 dive bombers. Employed against Soviet Navy.
.....Luftwaffe KG will have a higher proportion of Ju-88s. He-111s will go to allied nations.

[rank amateur]

A feasible scenario could be that the invasion of the USSR starts in the final days of the battle for Poland in October 1939. In stead of consolidating their positions, the German forces get drawn in unvolluntary clashes with the Sovjet invasion troops in Poland. In stead of living up the Molotow/Ribbentrop pact, Hitler, ignoring common sense and all arguments, commences in an invasion of the Sovjet Union.
At that time the Sovjet Union was even less prepared for war than it was on june ’41. The German assault gets an unexpected support from the Baltic nations, who after receiving notice of the Sovjet invasion plans, immediately declare war on Stalin and manage to completly overrun the sovjet troops they encounter. Meanwhile the Abwehr informs Finland about the Russian invasion plans after which Finlans also declares war.
Due to an element of surprise and bad preperations on the Sovjet side, the joint forces under German command manage to the paralyse the Sovjet armies and maintain firm positions on Sovjet soil before the Winter begins. During which the luftwaffe starts a bomber offensive against all Sovjet railways and industrie west of the Caucasus
Intimidated by the German successes neither France nor the UK are much inclined tot ‘warm’ up the phoney war status and diplomats on either side are trying to negotiate a new Munich treaty. No real chance of full blown war for at least 2 years.
So at the beginning of 1940 we have a damaged Sovjet Union, a western Europe untouched by war and a Germany that has the possibility to call it self an advocate of freedom by taking on the evil Sovjet Union and liberate Belarusso and Ukraine. Italy is outside of the war with limited risk for Germany to get caught in a war on the Balkan or Africa. And absolutely no reason for the US to instigate any Lend Lease.

Could this work?

[michaelmaltby]

Could this work ...... NO .... the historical facts don't support the thesis.

"... At that time the Sovjet Union was even less prepared for war than it was on june ’41"

At that time the Soviets have just decisively crushed and wrapped up a nasty little war with Japan.

Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have no appetite to start war with Russia. And few military resources.

Germany is is no shape after fighting the Poles to just carry on without a breather (the Phony War). Germany has suffered AC and tracked vehicle losses that need to be replaced.

MM