Which modern nation has highest potential in aerospace?

[Chiron]

Not including US (obvious, with spending of over 400 billions in military....)

Which following nation has biggest potential to develop advanced military aircraft withtout help from outside?

1. Europe (well, with Airbus and traditions of British and German....)

2. Japan (According to current military analysis, without including nuclear force, Japan has the 2nd most technological force in the world. With merely 1% of military spending and its robust economy (my Economic Prof. told me that every 1% growth is equivalent to the ecnomy of Malaysia).

3. China (The most enduring and most technological of all ancient states. In fact, according to January issue of Natioanl Geographic in 2004, Chinese were much advanced in economy and in technology than their comtemporary Roman empire. But it declined in late 17th century, and was helpless against British industrial power. But, Napoleon Bonarparte once said to his follow generals: "Let China sleeps, if she wakes, she will shake the world". China is waking, just like US a centry ago, or Japan 50 years ago, but it is much bigger. Many economists describe current Chinese phenomena is like 2nd industrialization in history)

4. Russia (Despite of its poor economy performance in post Soviet era, it still the 2nd most powerful military force after US (in terms of nuclear capbability).

5. India (the 4th largest economy in terms of PPP---Never been a Superpower like Rome or China in the past, but India is one of the most promised economy in the world. Just look how many NASA has Indian enginners and scientists, I heard its like more than 1/4 of NASA scientists are from India, and best of all they are so cheap in hiring).

[FLYBOYJ]

Sweden - Although I think its full potential is hampered by its current military doctrine.

[DAVIDICUS]

Your list of candidates for "modern nation" includes four nations and a ... continent. Europe is not a nation but a group of nations.

I will side with the group (safety in numbers you know).

I'd say the USA clearly has the lead for now.

I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years.

China is a nation to be freared. The USA and Europe and Japan should ally themselves more and more tightly to combat this threat as it grows.

=S=

Lunatic

[Chiron]

"I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years."

Funny thing that I found out during my Political Class is that Chinese bureaucrats are real pragmatic in that they are trully know their capability and their limits. For example, when you ask Chinese top government advisors, they would tell you that China will not surpass US (not just economy, health care, enviornment, science and research, and military) until at least a century. Chinese knew that, despite of such enormous growth, the average income in China is merely $1000, whereas US citizen enjoy stunning over $30,000. There are over a billion people in China, and it is certainly not an easy task.

But again, its kind exciting to image a potential rival. With the demise of Soviet Union, China become the next EVIL, BAD guy

Oh, one more thing, US is the sole superpower is not only because of its economy, but its ideology, especially in the form of pop culture. Not just European kids, Japanese youth, but Chinese next generations are crazy and admire American cutlure.

Unless China is able to develop a unique culture tread, that is both influencial and popular across cultures, it will remain a merely a economic powerhouse as Japan did in '80s.

Just look how many Chinese learn English and educate in US.

[delcyros]

I would go for US first.
The next one is difficult to answer, Europe is dependent on the US in many ways (should it be therefore excluded?).
Ummm, China looks great but has some enourmeous disadvantages. I doubt that China can overcome the social changes which follow their economic build up. By the way it is still (...and will be for some time) dependent on foreign technology (like their first spacecraft, technology was taken from russian sources).
I think that Russia has still the highest potential in aerospace technology after the US. While it is hampered by it´s economy it could go on for very impressive projects if financed properly.

[Nonskimmer]

Interesting KK. How many Chinese citizens have already flocked to the west coast of North America to live, as well?

As for aerospace potential?
Aside from the US, UK, and Russia, all of whom are obvious leaders in this area, I'd say France or Sweden. Both produce domestic designs and continue to develope more. But then in this wacky world of ours, who knows? I've a feeling that one or two of the former Soviet Block countries like Poland or perhaps the Czech Republic may get their fingers in the pie before long. It'll be interesting to see.

[Glider]

I would suggest that Europe should be considered as one entity as we have the technology but don't have the economic clout unless we get together.
The USA is obviously the leader but are they in danger of getting to clever for their own good. The F15 has been a great plane one of the best in history but its getting replaced by the Raptor. The F15 was sold to a large number of countries but who are they going to sell a stealth plane to? Isreal, I doubt it as the Arabs would try to stop it. The Arabs, not a chance Isreal would go spare. Europe, why should they when they have the choice of the Eurofighter, Rafael and Grippen to choose from. Also how many raptors are they going to buy.
If the USA isn't careful they are going to neuter themselves and leave the way open for someone else, probably Europe as the Russians lack technology and funding whilst China have other priorities.

Originally Posted by Chiron

"I think China is might overtake the USA within the next 50 years."

Funny thing that I found out during my Political Class is that Chinese bureaucrats are real pragmatic in that they are trully know their capability and their limits. For example, when you ask Chinese top government advisors, they would tell you that China will not surpass US (not just economy, health care, enviornment, science and research, and military) until at least a century. Chinese knew that, despite of such enormous growth, the average income in China is merely $1000, whereas US citizen enjoy stunning over $30,000. There are over a billion people in China, and it is certainly not an easy task.

But again, its kind exciting to image a potential rival. With the demise of Soviet Union, China become the next EVIL, BAD guy

Oh, one more thing, US is the sole superpower is not only because of its economy, but its ideology, especially in the form of pop culture. Not just European kids, Japanese youth, but Chinese next generations are crazy and admire American cutlure.

Unless China is able to develop a unique culture tread, that is both influencial and popular across cultures, it will remain a merely a economic powerhouse as Japan did in '80s.

Just look how many Chinese learn English and educate in US.

Overtaking all aspects of the US economy might well take China 100 or more years. But overtaking in areospace, particularly in space, might well take less time. China is certainly going to focus its resources in this area. While it is true that 60+ % of their population may be well below the standards of living of the American population in 50 years, they could still have more people living at a higher standard than that of the average American or European by that time.

=S=

Lunatic

Originally Posted by Glider

I would suggest that Europe should be considered as one entity as we have the technology but don't have the economic clout unless we get together.
The USA is obviously the leader but are they in danger of getting to clever for their own good. The F15 has been a great plane one of the best in history but its getting replaced by the Raptor. The F15 was sold to a large number of countries but who are they going to sell a stealth plane to? Isreal, I doubt it as the Arabs would try to stop it. The Arabs, not a chance Isreal would go spare. Europe, why should they when they have the choice of the Eurofighter, Rafael and Grippen to choose from. Also how many raptors are they going to buy.
If the USA isn't careful they are going to neuter themselves and leave the way open for someone else, probably Europe as the Russians lack technology and funding whilst China have other priorities.

The USA will not sell the Raptor to anyone. It is for our use and our use alone. The JST may well be sold to other closely allied nations.

As for what we will sell? Hmmm... F-15's, F-16's, etc... they are still potent weapons systems.

The Eurofighter, Rafael, and Grippen all fall almost without a fight to the Raptor. And as the agressor, they have little if any advantage over the current existing foes they might face. Supercruise is great for the agressor, but it is unimportant to the defender.

=S=

Lunatic

[Chiron]

"Overtaking all aspects of the US economy might well take China 100 or more years. But overtaking in areospace, particularly in space, might well take less time. China is certainly going to focus its resources in this area. While it is true that 60+ % of their population may be well below the standards of living of the American population in 50 years, they could still have more people living at a higher standard than that of the average American or European by that time. "

True. Chinese are knowing their limits in R&D and understands that they are incapable of competing with US especailly in military technology. Thus, they try to focus on seletive and strategic military developments. In other words, they spend large porton of money on ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and the accuracy of missile warheads. It is in these areas that put China in the forefront of aerospace as well as most dangerous foe. I believe US has realized and admited they are unable to intercept the current Chinese missiles. And one of the well know hypothesis in US military is that PLA would first use overwhelming shorge range and middle range ballistic missliles and supersonic cruise missiles (Russia made SSN-22 SUN-BURN Supersoic cruise missiles were designed to cripple the American fleets, and US has stated that they are incapbale of dealing with this threat in the course of naval battles) to devastate the 7th fleet, and and any other military bases in Pacific region before sending much inferior air force, naval fleet and most imporatntly their amphibious army in the event of recapturing Taiwan.

[FLYBOYJ]

Originally Posted by RG_Lunatic

The JST may well be sold to other closely allied nations.

The JSF now known as the F-35 has the following countries participating as team members:

United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, Canada, Denmark and Norway.

More than likely these countries will either purchase F-35s and/ or build components.

[Chiron]

Is F-22 superior to F-35? It seems to me F-35 can do more stuffs that F-22 can not, such as STOL (correct me if i am wrong).

But, its like comparison between F-15 and F-16..........each carries different purpose and missions.

[delcyros]

I am wondering about these new jet projects, since they are outdated even now. Raptor, Eurofighter, Gripen, Mig IM, that has no future anymore. With an that quickly developing technology in autonomously guidiances the future belongs to drones. Without need to support pilot controll you can design a plane more stealthy, cheaper, MUCH MORE manouverable, more powerful or smaller. They are also more potential to reach the edge of space. Too much advantages in my eyes. The US, europe, russia and even Israel have recognized it. A technology race in this field can bring very different leaders in short time, who knows?

[FLYBOYJ]

I knew a lot of people who worked on the Lockheed JSF and the rumor had it that it performed so well the Raptor program office was worried that they were going to look bad. In actuality they have 2 different roles, but I think the F-35 is going to be the better aircraft.