Sorens Really What If Thread

[Gnomey]

Originally Posted by syscom3

Didnt the RAF have some bombers hitting the barge assembly points along the coast? And I didnt think there were many harbors in the channel where the Germans could bring together the numbers of troops necessary to invade in force. And having a flat bottomed barge sail the 100 miles from Normandy to England would be crazy.

Yes the RAF bombed the barges while they were being stockpiled in France about 10% (I think) were sunk.

Agreed it would have been madness.

[Concorde247]

Something i dont think that anybodys picked up on yet as an example of ships getting through is the merchant ships & their escorts that made the Malta run in the med. They were under virtually constant air attacks by not only the luftwaffe but also the italian airforce. inspite of high losses ships still got through, and thats with TWO nations airforces attacking them. and those convoys escorts were mostly corvettes & destroyers, not bigger ships with more firepower.

you also have to remember that Not all the Royal Navy ships were in their
home waters, there were a great many protecting the trade routes & empires around the world. if the RAF had been destroyed, and the nations shores were under such dire threat, dont you think that the admiralty would have pulled a lot of those ships back if not all?

The bottom line is: Yes, although the RN would have suffered losses, the German barges would have been mincemeat, and there was NO WAY that the seabourne invasion would have been successful.

Not enough U-boats or E-boats, for protection & insufficient quantities of the correct available aircraft to keep the RN at bay, Sealion would have been a disaster for the germans.

And regarding any airbourne assault, without the troops from the barges (they would have been either at the bottom of the channel or swimming home without their equipment) to relieve them, they could only hold out for so long til both men & ammo had been exhausted.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I really dont htink there is much to argue here Soren. The Germans were not prepared to do an invasion of England and it never would have happened. Yeah there a lot of What Ifs but that is all they what ifs.

[Lunatic]

A much more plausible "What if" is - What if Hitler had not let his racism get the best of him and formed an alliance with the Ukranian seperatists? This would have allowed him to defeat the Soviets and would most likely have also brought Turkey into the war on the Axis side, exposing Africa and the vital Mid-East oil supplies to direct German attack. It might also have made the Japanese more seriously consider attacking India rather than the USA in order that Japan and Germany might link up via India.

=S=

Lunatic

[syscom3]

Lunatic, that is quite a plausable scenario. Ive always wondered the same thing myself. If they formed some Ukranian divisions, they would have gone after the Russians with a fury.

[CurzonDax]

Here are two what ifs. What if Midway had been a Japanese victory or what if MARKET-GARDEN had been 100% successful.

:{)

[syscom3]

Midway would have been a "so-so" victory for the IJN, as they didnt have the shipping to properly support it. Midway is a long way from the nearest Japanese bases, and couldnt be properly supplied or defended.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Interesting scenerios Lunatic and I too often think about the same thing when I think of what ifs. I personally think it might have changed the war drastically because it would have allowed the Germans to defeat Russia and that would have given the Germans access to raw materials that they did not have prior.

[CurzonDax]

Originally Posted by syscom3

Midway would have been a "so-so" victory for the IJN, as they didnt have the shipping to properly support it. Midway is a long way from the nearest Japanese bases, and couldnt be properly supplied or defended.

Oh I am not saying that the US would have lost the war but the loss maybe all three carriers and the taking of Midway would have made the US' hold of Hawaii, ricketty at best. Also let me state that I am not a believer that the Japanese could have invaded the west coast of the US.

:{)

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by CurzonDax

Here are two what ifs. What if Midway had been a Japanese victory or what if MARKET-GARDEN had been 100% successful.

:{)

Midway would have prolonged the war perhaps 6 months but had little other consequence.

MarketGarden would have shortened the war by perhaps 6 months and greatly effected the post-war dynamic.

=S=

Lunatic

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by CurzonDax

Oh I am not saying that the US would have lost the war but the loss maybe all three carriers and the taking of Midway would have made the US' hold of Hawaii, ricketty at best. Also let me state that I am not a believer that the Japanese could have invaded the west coast of the US.

:{)

Read the following: http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

from the excellent site: http://www.combinedfleet.com/kaigun.htm (very worth some time).

I think it is all to clear that Japan had virtually no chance in WWII. Just look at the ship production table. Japan produced a total of just 17 aircraft carriers in WWII, where the USA produced 18 in 1942, 65 in 1943, and 45 in 1944.

If you read over the various articles on this site it becomes utterly apparent that the Japanese Navy had virtually no chance in WWII. By mid-1943 they were, for the most part, just waiting to be sunk.

The "Strategic Implications" section covers the topic of a total loss at Midway in depth and concludes that by mid-1944 the USN would still be totally dominant. And a loss at Midway would probably have meant even quicker deployment of ships to the PTO - after the Midway victory the USA was able to relax a little bit knowing the Japanese could not recover from such a devestating defeat.

=S=

Lunatic

[Soren]

First of all to make thing clear, I never said that this "What if" was ever plausible with the RAF still alive. My argument was built entirely on "If the RAF was defeated", which they weren't, and according to Hop's very interesting source, were never really close to either. But if the RAF were defeated, this "What if" seems very plausible, thats all I'm saying.

Nonskimmer,

What I meant about what happened in France was, that an airborne invasion force was used combined with a main land-based invasion force, and basically took over France in the blink of an eye, as there were basically no french aircraft to harass the Germans. (The only obstacle being the Maginot line)

With no RAF to harass the German invasion force on the beaches, supplies and manpower could come rolling in much the same way they did during the invasion of France. This means the linkage between the airborne invasion force and the main force could be established in much the same way and time as in France.

Originally Posted by Lunatic

And German bombers werfe generally setup to carry too small a bomb to be effective anyway - and I think they lacked the Armor Percing bombs used by the Japanese entirely.

Norway April 1940, the destroyers Afridi, Grom and Bison as well as the anti-aircraft ship Bittern, were all sunk by Stuka's carrying 250kg "Bomb's". Bittern's sister ship, the Black Swan, was also hit by a Stuka, but the bomb passed straight through the ship before exploding, luckily for the Black Swan who survived.

The penetration ability of German bombs was every bit as good as the Japanee's ones ! Infact the Japanee's copied a couple of German bomb designs. (IIRC the delayed penetration bomb was one of them)

Originally Posted by Lunatic

Huh? What Luftwaffe' aircraft had the operational range to effectively engage the RN along the West Coast of Britain? The only attack aircraft the German's had which was likely to be successful against the RN was the Stuka and it had no where near the range.

The Ju-87R, the "R" stood for "Reichweite (Range)". This version had fuel tanks in the outer wings and could carry two 300 liter (80 US gallon) external tanks, along with a single 250 kilogram (550 pound) bomb.

The Ju-87D aswell, which although it had a shorter maximum range 'with' its typical bomb-load of 1160km(1x500kg bomb + 4x40kg bombs), could still reach most of western Britain if launched from Basse-Normandy.

The Ju-88 was a great choice as-well, accurate, and with combat range of 2,108 km (1,310 miles) carrying 1,200kg (2,100lbs) of bombs, more than capable of reaching the RN.

Originally Posted by Lunatic

The HE111 was not well suited to such missions and it too lacked sufficient range.

What ?! The He111 had great bombing accuracy, and had a combat range of over 2,100km (1,300 miles), carrying 2,000kg (4,410lbs), of bombs. (Or a Torpedo)

The Me110 fighter-bomber was another possible good choice, with good bombing accuracy and a combat range of 2,410km (1,500 miles), carrying up to 2,000kg (4,410lbs) of bombs. (Or a Torpedo)

Or how about the He115, with a combat range of 2,100km (1,305 miles), carrying a 450kg (1,000lbs) Torpedo.

With these aircraft in service, I don't see where the problem of reaching the RN would come from. The only small problem would be to have enough of them for one critical strike, however Im sure Hitler was willing to sacrifice quite a few from other front-line stations, just to have enough.

Germany did after-all have 960 bombers at their disposal.

Originally Posted by Lunatic

Look at the map and the ranges of the planes Soren.

Yeah, you do that Lunatic.

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by DerAdlerIstGelandet

Interesting scenerios Lunatic and I too often think about the same thing when I think of what ifs. I personally think it might have changed the war drastically because it would have allowed the Germans to defeat Russia and that would have given the Germans access to raw materials that they did not have prior.

Not to mention a shift of approximately 3 million soldiers from the Soviets to the German alliance, plus soldiers from Turkey and possibly even more from other Arabic countries.

Also with this change in the overall dynamic, Japan or Hitler may have also been able to bring India over to the dark side, shifting yet another million or two soldiers from the Allied to the Axis cause.

[Udet]

Jesus Christ of Nazareth...

What the hell am I reading here?

To strenghten Soren´s last comment, I will tell those who affirm the Luftwaffe could not tangle with the Royal Navy another interesting fact:

Operation Merkur, Crete, May 1941:

Royal Navy losses:

3 cruisers (HMS Gloucester, HMS Fiji and HMS Calcutta) and 6 destroyers pounded to hell and sent to the bottom by Ju87´s and Ju88´s.

Do not forget to add: 2 battleships (HMS Warspite brutally damaged and knocked out of action for several months), 1 carrier (HMS Formidable, also knocked out of action for months), 5 cruisers and 5 destroyers with heavy damage.

A total of 23 war vessels either sunk or erased from the Order of Battle for a while.

All that in a mere few days of combat.


A naval force, no matter how large, no matter how big and powerful the vessels comprising it are, is piece of cake if air cover is lacking.

[Nonskimmer]

Originally Posted by Soren

Nonskimmer,

What I meant about what happened in France was, that an airborne invasion force was used combined with a main land-based invasion force, and basically took over France in the blink of an eye, as there were basically no french aircraft to harass the Germans. (The only obstacle being the Maginot line)

With no RAF to harass the German invasion force on the beaches, supplies and manpower could come rolling in much the same way they would've during the invasion of France. This means the linkage between the airborne invasion force and the main force could be established in much the same way and time as in France.

That's not much of a comparison. The German ground forces in France had no channel in their way, nor did they have a powerful navy to deal with or the British shore defences. Not to mention the British fighting spirit. Like you said, the big obstacle was the Maginot Line. Once the paratroops had seized it, the ground troops just rolled right in.