what if...

[fly boy]

what if the US never nuked japan do you think the tide of war could change for a month or would the war go with an invasion

[FLYBOYJ]

An invasion, 20 million dead and possibly a confrontation with the Soviet Union at the end of the day.

[ccheese]

After Okinawa fell, the Japanese had little left to play with. Their sources
for oil, rubber, steel and other commodities had just about dried up. I think
if someone had asked, and removed the "unconditional" from surrender, they
might have at least thought about it. I do believe that we would have had
to invade, tho.

Charles

[wilbur1]

Yea they werent very far away in terms of material, the fight was in the dog but the dog was too weak

[Thorlifter]

When they looked at cost of American lives compared to an invasion and the bomb, it was a no brainer.

However, your question is what if we didn't drop it.

I agree with FlyboyJ. The death toll would have been staggering. Plus, after the wear on men and materials on the U.S. side, Russia would have been very unpredictable.

[ToughOmbre]

We would have had to go ahead with "Operation Downfall". American casualties would have been extremely heavy. Iwo Jima and Okinawa cost over 75,000 casualties combined, of that over 19,000 killed. Do the math, not pretty. Would have been criminal NOT to initiate the atomic raids. Good thing it only took two A-bombs; that's all we had in August '45.

I also have got a "selfish" reason to justify the A-bombs. Although my old man had enough "points" in the ETO, I got the feeling that he, and just about everybody else, would possibly have had to eventually get involved. So I might not be sittin' here right now typing this post.

TO

[orion549]

The death toll of an invasion would've been huge, I think I heard somewhere the Japs had something like 5000 aircraft on standby just for Kamikaze duty in preparation for an invasion. Although I've also heard that they were preparing to surrender when the bombs were dropped, or at least after the first, so an invasion may still not have happened anyway.

[plan_D]

The fighting in the CBI would have gone on longer too, let's not forget. So, the death toll would have been even greater all round. I've heard that the Japanese aircraft (of all types) that could have been prepped for suicide attacks was closer to 17,000 ! The number seems high to me... but if true, my god.

[Evil_Merlin]

The Japanese mainland was still training women, children and the elderly in homeland defense right up to the end. It was rather scary.

The propaganda the Japanese authorities were using to scare the civilians about a possible invasion and the treatment they woud face under the occupational forces (or rather invasion forces) were downright horrible.

The Japanese had plans to mobilize and utilize over 10,000 aircraft to protect the islands (by July, more were expected to be ready by October, but not a lot more), mostly as Kamakazis, as well as the use of suicide boats, which were already under construction under the watchful eyes of Admiral Matome Ugaki (100 Kōryū-class submarines, 250 smaller Kairyū-class submarines, and 1,000 Kaiten manned torpedoes were available to the Navy. The Army had about 800 Shin'yō boats).

The invastion was expected to be so bad that if the collective Allied invasions (Olympic followed by Coronet 4 months later) took more than 180 days, over 1.2 million casulties were expected, with nearly 300k of those being KIA's. Heck the government made half a million purple heart metals in expectation of the invastion. By last year there were still over 110 thousand left in inventories!

[Marcel]

Just one question though, why would you have to invade Japan? Japan's offensive force in august 1945 was virtually nil. Why not just lock them out from the outside world and let them return to the middle ages on their own? Remember, they hardly had any natural resources and without oil, they wouldn't have lasted long any more.

[Evil_Merlin]

Because they still had the ability to wage war, very similar to what Germany was able to do right up to the end.

[plan_D]

Merlin is right. You cannot allow the enemy freedom to wage war; it's been one of the most important aspects of war throughout history. Denying the enemy the ability to wage war was the primary reason the Roman Empire grew so large and the reason that Japan would have needed to be invaded.

[timshatz]

No bomb. Probably an invasion. Put it at 70-80% odds. There were a few in the American forces that were starting to go against invasion at the end of July, begining of August. Nimitz was one. The planners called for 350K Japanese defenders on Kyushu on Nov 1. Intelligence told them that the number was already at 800K by Aug 1. Nimitz saw a bloodbath and thought blockade would get the job done in 2 years.

McArthur wanted invasion. Probably, fairly certain, he would've gotten it.

Casualties from Invasion:
Allied
Allied Naval- 19K (15K KIA)
Allied Air- 9K (7.5K KIA)
Allied Ground 398K (98K KIA)
Allied POW in Jap Hands 200K (200K KIA)
Allied Civilians in Jap Hands 7K (7K KIA)

Japanese
Naval 40K (36K KIA) Mostly naval forces acting as ground troops
Air 12K (12K KIA) Kamakaze
Land 700K (500k KIA, remainder wounded or sick)
Civilian 2-7Million (1.5M K, Remainder sick and wounded)

Asian Civilian 200K per month Deaths.

A bunch of the numbers above are swags (scientific wild ass guesses). But I base it on the casualty rates for the US Marine/US Army battles (Japanese deaths to American deaths were roughly 4-1 on smaller islands and 17-1 on larger islands where battle was more mobile). Also, the japanese were not keeping any Enemy POW or Civilians alive after the Invasion started. Why feed useless mouths? Lastly, the Japanese civilian deaths are based on a population that was on the verge of starvation at the end of 1945 when the Rice Crop failed. Coupled with a destroyed rail, road and interisland shipping network and you have widescale starvation and disease (the real killers in war).

[Marcel]

Not convinced yet. Japan was different from germany in the fact that it had no real borders with any other country. It's much easier to seal off. If you seal them of from oil, they have no freedom to wage war, because they have no fuel to power the machine. It's the principle of siege in the middle ages which still could be applied.

[plan_D]

It took a lot to besiege a city in Medieval times, it was always preferred to assault any city or castle than besiege it. The U.S would have used a lot of resources keeping units on station all year round. On top of Japan itself there are the Japanese units in China and Burma in 1945 that surrendered when Japan itself did. Those units would continue fighting with Japan blockaded which would lead to a continued loss of life in the CBI theatre.

On top of the actual combat that would have taken place without Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there was the Soviet threat which was real. The Soviets would have attempted an invasion of the Japanese home islands in the north with the aim of holding them after the war. There would have most likely been an incursion into Manchuria and China as well which would have produced a larger Soviet presence in south east Asia. A larger Soviet Union that would have certainly clashed with the Allies over Japan, if nothing else.

'The bomb' stopped more than just an invasion of Japan, it made the Soviet Union step back and think twice before reacting against the Allies - which probably saved more lives than you or I could imagine.