What If: Mosquitos vs Oil Targets

[tomo pauk]

The 50 rds magazine (2 twin rows each) weighted 89 kilos, and two loaders were changing them, obviously one magazine at time. The drill was lasting 80 seconds, IIRC, from time the loaders scrambled from their hatches until they were back under armor again, (it was a SP piece), guns loaded.

[wuzak]

A Mosquito looks a lot different then a B-17. If 100 Mosquitos tag along during daylight and split off from the main formation en mass I think the Luftwaffe air defense network would notice.

When I said "do the same" I meant that the Mosquitos would use the B-17s as a diversion. I didn't mean literally your scenario of having the Mosquitos in the formation with the B-17s.

Night is a different matter. German radar will notice 100 aircraft splitting off but they won't know what type aircraft. I suspect WWII era air search radar didn't work well for low flying aircraft so the Mosquitos are likely to disappear from the screen when they reach 500 feet.

I'm sure during the day the early detection of the bomber stream would be done by the same radar as was used at night. It is only when someone gets a visual that notice would be taken. That, possibly, could be as soon as the aircraft crossed the coast.

If radar wasn't that effective below 500ft then why would we have the Mossies dawdling along at 200mph and 18,000ft? Why not send them i below the radar height and fast. More difficult at night, I know, but 617 managed even lower with Lancasters, albeit slow and only in small groups.

@300mph it's only 15 minutes from Berlin to Stettin. The attack on Stettin will be over before the Luftwaffe figure out where the 100 aircraft went. So Mosquito light bombers will be faced only with flak, which is plenty bad enough at Stettin. Losing all 100 Mosquitos to light flak would be worthwhile if the hydrogenation plant is destroyed. That's the grim calculus of war.

If they fly in at below 500ft they could avoid detection until near the target. If the NFs or fighters (in the day) are occupied elsewhere by the bait (ie heavy bombers) then the only opposition will be the flak guns.

I very much doubt that the flak gunners would get 100% of the attacking force. I even doubt 50%. It may be the "grim calculus of war", but it isn't practical. Oil facilities had a habit of being repaired and getting back into operation. One strike wasn't going to do it - be it Mosquitos, Lancasters, B-17s or B-29s. Continuous bombing needed to be done, so as few losses as possible would be required.

I would think you would start with 200 Mosquitos, and hold 50 in reserve - if they are available, of course. You could hit the plant with 100 in the morning, and as those are returning to base another 100 could be heading for the same target, or another. The remainder of the first group could be re-fuelled, re armed and re-crewed and sent on another mission in the afternoon. This could continue day and night as long as the number of Mosquitos remains high enough.

As you have pointed out, flak positions may be the biggest threat to such a plan.

[pbfoot]

I would think you would start with 200 Mosquitos, and hold 50 in reserve - if they are available, of course. You could hit the plant with 100 in the morning, and as those are returning to base another 100 could be heading for the same target, or another. The remainder of the first group could be re-fuelled, re armed and re-crewed and sent on another mission in the afternoon. This could continue day and night as long as the number of Mosquitos remains high enough.

As you have pointed out, flak positions may be the biggest threat to such a plan.

and what happens 0n day 2 when 50% of the aircraft are U/S and day 3 when 70% are broken .

[syscom3]

Probably a better plan would be for the Mossie's to trail the bomber stream and continue the bombardment of the target. That would suppress firefighting efforts and allow more thermal damage (from fires) to the steel and iron infrastructure of the refineries.

Surprisingly, the refineries had a single weakness that if destroyed, would permanently put them out of action. Those were the high pressure compressors used in the refining process. But, you needed 4000 pound bombs at a minimum to destroy them. On occasion, the 8th and 15th bombers hit them. But the 500 and 1000 pounders caused only superficial damage.

[wuzak]

and what happens 0n day 2 when 50% of the aircraft are U/S and day 3 when 70% are broken .

Do you really think that's what would happen?

I think the losses would be much less than that.

[wuzak]

Surprisingly, the refineries had a single weakness that if destroyed, would permanently put them out of action. Those were the high pressure compressors used in the refining process. But, you needed 4000 pound bombs at a minimum to destroy them. On occasion, the 8th and 15th bombers hit them. But the 500 and 1000 pounders caused only superficial damage.

I presume that since you made reference to the USAAF trying to hit them they knew where in the plant they were and how valuable they were?

Sounds like the 4000lb MC was the bomb for the job - but they weren't available until late 1943/44 IIRC, and only a few aircraft could carry them. The Mosquito was probably the only one which could carry them in low and have areally high chance of getting hits.

[Glider]

Probably a better plan would be for the Mossie's to trail the bomber stream and continue the bombardment of the target. That would suppress firefighting efforts and allow more thermal damage (from fires) to the steel and iron infrastructure of the refineries.

Surprisingly, the refineries had a single weakness that if destroyed, would permanently put them out of action. Those were the high pressure compressors used in the refining process. But, you needed 4000 pound bombs at a minimum to destroy them. On occasion, the 8th and 15th bombers hit them. But the 500 and 1000 pounders caused only superficial damage.

You could look at this the other way around. Use the Mosquito with the 4,000 ib bomb to do the serious damage and let the B17 support them and suppress the fire fighting effort

[pbfoot]

Do you really think that's what would happen?

I think the losses would be much less than that.

It wouldn't be pleasure cruise , I do believe between damaged and problems of usual maintainence it would be very hard to keep that group of aircraft at anywhere near the numbers you propose . remember you have the aircraft coming back and new crews driving them . I'm not even including losses

[Milosh]

You could look at this the other way around. Use the Mosquito with the 4,000 ib bomb to do the serious damage and let the B17 support them and suppress the fire fighting effort

Or make more Lancasters since they could carry 3 times the bomb load of a B-17.

[wuzak]

It wouldn't be pleasure cruise

Never thought it woudl be.

I do believe between damaged and problems of usual maintainence it would be very hard to keep that group of aircraft at anywhere near the numbers you propose . remember you have the aircraft coming back and new crews driving them . I'm not even including losses

Still seems way too high - to lose 50% of aircraft due to servicibility problems during 1 day.

[Edgar Brooks]

You're correct. I believe a squadron of 12 could drop their bombs and clear the area before the bombs went off..

Crews were given a TOT (time on target,) so it wouldn't be difficult to stagger arrival times so that a preceding "delivery" had already exploded.

In any case, there were other fuses with longer delays if needed.

Very true

You could also do the same during the daylight with the 8th AF bombers. In both cases the reduced speeds may compromise the Mosquito's range and cancel its key advantages - speed and agility (for a bomber). AT night the slower speed required to stay with the Lancs and Halifaxes would render the Mosquito far more vulnerable to nightfighters than otherwise.
But the idea of using the BC bomber stream as a cover or diversion is quite valid. As the main force heads towards Berlin (per your example) they will attract the bulk of the NF force in their region. The Mosquito force, flying low and fast could sneak past the pre-occupied defences and attack the oil installation. They may even be able to achive this before the main force reaches Berlin. The Main force could continue on its mission, or turn and bombs the fires set by the Mossies

Using the bombers as a cover was usually employed, but not by flying with them; concentrating all aircraft in one area is a recipe for disaster. If you check records, you'll find that genuine raids, and "spoof" raids were regularly undertaken at the same time as a major raid, with the idea of splitting the nightfighter force, even getting them to take off, and sending in the main force while they were back on the ground, refuelling. It was rare for a force to head directly towards the target; apart from needing to avoid well-defended areas, it was necessary to fool the defences into thinking that they were heading for a completely different target, thereby sending nightfighters to the wrong place. People tend to forget that other raids were taking place during the dams raid, which is why 617 were largely unmolested while they were near their targets.

[Njaco]

I'm sure during the day the early detection of the bomber stream would be done by the same radar as was used at night. It is only when someone gets a visual that notice would be taken. That, possibly, could be as soon as the aircraft crossed the coast.

I believe there were 2 different radar systems and reporting between NF and day-fighters.

[mhuxt]

People tend to forget that other raids were taking place during the dams raid, which is why 617 were largely unmolested while they were near their targets.

Not entirely true in the Dambusters' case, only other activity that night according to the RAF History site was "9 Mosquitos to Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf and Münster, 54 aircraft minelaying off Biscay ports and in the Frisians, 4 OTU sorties"

One of the most notable spoofs was during the Peenemuende raid, when a small number of mossies tied up the German NF force over Berlin. The Germans eventually tumbled to it, which is why so many of the casualties fell on the last wave.

[wuzak]

Using the bombers as a cover was usually employed, but not by flying with them; concentrating all aircraft in one area is a recipe for disaster.

I am not proposing that the Mossies fly with the heavies. Rather that they follow on a little later, when the defences are all tied up.

[davebender]

A mass attack can overload enemy air defenses. Attack with one squadron at a time and the 50 or so light flak weapons will slaughter them 12 aircraft at at time.