Will there ever be a heavy-weight military clash?

[Udet]

Gentlemen, ladies, boys, girls:

Although it is generally accepted the armed forces of the U.S.A. posses the most advanced and sophisticated weaponry systems, Great Britain, the enfant chéri of the U.S.A. is another element on the table; there you have Russia and China, both military powers, possibly lagging behind the U.S.A. in terms of armament but with huge militaries...others that could perhaps be considered "minor" are India, Pakistan and North Korea, as all three nations maintain significant military budgets -and in the case of India and North Korea we also talk about huge militaries-.

But back to the question giving life to this thread: do you believe we will live long enough to witness some sort of global catastrophe as a consequence of a militay clash between any of the present-day heavy-weights?

I am not referring to a nuclear kind of engagement as the possiblity might seem highly remote, but is it possible to think of a war other than a superpower like the U.S.A. invading nations with weak armies and/or internal chaos and lawlessness?

Do you think the geopolitical balance of the word could follow such path that any of the present-day heavyweights might wage war between them?

As it has been since ancient times, when a determined world power enters a state of war, another power, even if "minor", might join in the party to back the ally, so if a war like the one i am referring to occurs this principle will of course function. So let´s say, is it possible to see a war between China and the U.S.A.?

Still a "what if" of course, but could it happen? If so, what side would the Russians join? It is known Russians and Chinese do not have what you´d call the most pleasant of the relationships. Neutrality would be impossible in the case of the russians, they would get involved in one degree or another....

Also there is an element to be considered and that should turn out critical in case of such war: a democracy like that we find in the U.S.A. and Great Britain will be in clear disadvantage when waging a war against a totalitarian regime like China or "democracies" like that the Russians practice nowadays as the the U.S.A. and Great Britain are not good at bearing high casualties.

You may ask "How Come?". Well, it should be simple.

Russia and -especially- China have the full power to excersise a tight control of the mass media: radio, tv and, still, the internet. The U.S.A. and Great Britain can come nowhere close in performing such control of the mass media and broadcasting elements in their nations.

The Chinese and the Russians could conceal almost all information regarding the progress of the war to their people, especially the casualties, and it is not like you will see a large group of Chinese mothers gathering outside government buildings demonstrating and claiming to see their loved sons sent to the war. Think what could happen to them.

Any opinions?

Cheers!

[timshatz]

Definitely will be another great war. What will it look like? Good question. There is one thing for sure, it will not look anything like predicted. Most of us are very familiar with WW2. As a consequence, we see wars in terms of that conflict. For good reason too, it was the last "Great War". But the massed Tank Armies of the Soviets, Nazi and Western Allies, Great bomber formations and Massive Sea Battles will probably not happen again. At least not on the scale of WW2. There will be Air, Land and Sea conflicts, but they will be tempered by the affects of the economic engines of the countries involved.

For instance, WW1 and WW2 were products of the Industrial Age. Massed weapons production was a logical byproduct of massed manufacturing ability. While that still exists, it is (or has been) being supplanted by the Information Age. What was done in 1945 by 1000 bomber raid can now be done with several very smart missles or a highly trained group of Specials Forces operators. The attacks will go for the eyes and ears of the opposition. Blind them, and all the combat power in the world goes for naught. Information for you and blinding your enemy will be the keys.

That is not to say there will be no more Monte Cassinos, Hurtgen or Pelelius. There will be plenty of opportunities for massed forces to grind together. But the keys to future will be information and getting inside the enemy's information loop.

Also, assaults on the enemy's will to fight, especially the home populace, will be stepped up. They will come in the form of disinformation as well as attacks on the civilian infrastructure. Denial of Service attacks, attacks on the power grid, worms, viruses, trojan horses as well as active attacks on the populace will all take place. Nobody knows how this will all turn out as it is more along the lines theory. But there are plans out there for it.

In short, the attacks will be focused. Populations are so large that mass casualties generally have a negligible effect on the economic viability of a country but will increase the will to fight. Like I noted above, nobody knows exactly how this will all turn out so it will be interesting to say the least.

Or...everybody starts chucking nukes. In which case, I hope I'm dead before it happens and not because of it.

[Matt308]

Absolutely there will be another great clash. We are witnessing global chaos of a grand scale already in Africa. Millions have died. Oh yeah. They don't count because they have nothing most of the world wants.

My prediction. War over energy sources, water and/or food. Origination? Asia. Cause? Unchecked growth in China resulting in energy demands that cannot be met, mass disaffection of chinese poor (have and have nots) and the convenience of war to garner common focus (energy, historical land claims, past animosity with others).

And did anyone read about Japan completing a study on the cost and timeline for Hydrogen Bomb development? Worstcase result was a few billion bucks and 5 years time. Pennies to the worlds second largest economy. But it was only a study. The Chinese feel better already.

[mkloby]

Originally Posted by Matt308

Absolutely there will be another great clash. We are witnessing global chaos of a grand scale already in Africa. Millions have died. Oh yeah. They don't count because they have nothing most of the world wants.

My prediction. War over energy sources, water and/or food. Origination? Asia. Cause? Unchecked growth in China resulting in energy demands that cannot be met, mass disaffection of chinese poor (have and have nots) and the convenience of war to garner common focus (energy, historical land claims, past animosity with others).

And did anyone read about Japan completing a study on the cost and timeline for Hydrogen Bomb development? Worstcase result was a few billion bucks and 5 years time. Pennies to the worlds second largest economy. But it was only a study. The Chinese feel better already.

Didn't hear about that. But, I would be very eager to be fighting w/ the Japanese rather than against them... that economy can support a massive fighting machine. They only spend about 1% of gdp on defense... approx 40billion...

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I think Asia or even Russia could be the setting of the next great one.

[Erich]

look to the mid-east ..........

it's almost but not quite Armageddon time

[Udet]

Timshatz:

Interesting set of ideas.

I quote this particular part of your posting:

"Also, assaults on the enemy's will to fight, especially the home populace, will be stepped up. They will come in the form of disinformation as well as attacks on the civilian infrastructure. Denial of Service attacks, attacks on the power grid, worms, viruses, trojan horses as well as active attacks on the populace will all take place. Nobody knows how this will all turn out as it is more along the lines theory. But there are plans out there for it."

Don´t you think the Chinese population is by far better "prepared" to resist that sort of warfare -and recuperate from shock- than the inhabitants of the so called western world?

[the lancaster kicks ass]

he makes a very good point about the use of electronics in the next conflict, particularly with our reliance on the internet and computers these days, a few big viruses or other malware would mess things up badly for either combattant...........

[Matt308]

And I have read about probes being done on a regular basis originating from China. Of course they deny that it is state sponsored.

[Erich]

don't worry Matt we have been probing China for years .............. ah hmmmmmmmm .......

[evangilder]

Definitely not one sided. Cyber threats are being measured and taken into account many times a day. It's not just China that these probes are coming from...

[timshatz]

Originally Posted by Udet

Don´t you think the Chinese population is by far better "prepared" to resist that sort of warfare -and recuperate from shock- than the inhabitants of the so called western world?

Udet, a clarification to your post is requested.

Do you mean they are "closer to the ground" than the populace of the US and as a consequence, a DOS attack would not affect them as much as they are not so dependent on technology?

Or, they are more technologically savy than the average US citizen and would restore their operations faster?

Or, they are less lazy and inclined to improvise faster than the average Western citizen?

Not dissing you, just looking for a POV (Point of View) for you question as that will affect the response.

[timshatz]

Originally Posted by evangilder

Definitely not one sided. Cyber threats are being measured and taken into account many times a day. It's not just China that these probes are coming from...

Good point. The WWW oughta stand for the "Weenies Wild West". There are very few restrictions and a helluva lot of ruthless/slick operators on the Web. As Tarzan said to Jane, "It's a jungle out there".

[Udet]

Timshats, hi:

Although your first question would seem to address the issue originally in mind, my viewpoint comes in a broader sense: lifestyles, religion, political systems, economy and of course the power of the armed forces of those nations are to be considered as they would play a critical role in case of war.

It will still be interesting to read your opinion regarding the fact the bulk of the Chinese population is not so dependent on technology. As an interesting remark, it should be noted more than 1,000,000 chinese do not have access to the internet, more than three times the entire population of the U.S.A.

China is indeed superlative in virtually every deparment.

In the west...USA, Canada, France, Germany, Sweden, Norway and England to name a few...take away the net, cable TV, PC´s, laptops, cell phones, blackberries, DVDs, and iPods from the population and see what they are capable of doing. It is not that i suggest the Chinese are capable of "taking away" those means and devices from people in western powers, rather, it is just an attempt to illustrate how attached to technology means and devices most people in the western powers are.

It would be just like depriving the British Empire of its fleet and navigational means at the zenith of Great Britain´s dominance.

Hard moments and tragedy usually activate survival and self-preservation instincts among lifeforms, however, and in view of the kind of life one can see in the west, i wonder if such instinct might be in a severe degenerative process.

Would the present-day inhabitants of Germany endure the sort of horror their forebearers went through during world war two when the western allied air forces incinerated them with their cities? Improbable.

A significant part of the inhabitants of northern/western europe and the U.S.A. are part of a culture focused on leisure, pleasure and consumism.

Do you agree when i say the Chinese system can exercise a far greater control of broadcasting elements than any western nation can come close to attain?

I admit my knowledge regarding electronic warfare is about zero, so can you elaborate further on how would the U.S.A. take full advantage of electronic warfare over the Chinese?

Unless knowing of something i might be utterly unaware of -something that is likely-, i still believe the Chinese people find themselves in better shape to go through the horrors of war.

I agree with the one who said, let´s hope such a thing never happens.

Cheers!

[the lancaster kicks ass]

i have to say i agree with Udet, the oppression placed on the Chineese by their government and their relative technology free lifestyles means they'd be better placed to face a war, not to mention the fact they'd still have a phenominal population and any war China is in would rely on China's immence man power..........