First case of Tamiflu-resistant swine flu found in Canada

[Maestro]

Greetings ladies and gentlemen.

I can already hear the medias going crazy over that...

Quebec finds first, Japan finds second cases of Tamiflu-resistant swine flu - Yahoo! Canada News

You know the weirdest part ? It's that the swine flu as a lower death ratio than the "traditional" flu... And no one is panicking about that said flu.

[gumbyk]

Maestro,
I had the same thoughts as you regarding the lower fatality rate of the Swine Flu, but I was put straight.

The 1918 pandemic followed a similar pattern, jumping from animal to human. At first, it wasn't fatal, in fact there were two pandemics, one, earlier non-fatal one, and then the virus mutated to a more fatal one. I think it is that possibility that has health authorities worrying.

I had heard on the news that the mutation that makes the virus resistant to Tamiflu also stops the spread from human to human, don't know how accurate that is though.

[vikingBerserker]

That's a very good point Maestro.

[Vassili Zaitzev]

Originally Posted by gumbyk

Maestro,
I had the same thoughts as you regarding the lower fatality rate of the Swine Flu, but I was put straight.

The 1918 pandemic followed a similar pattern, jumping from animal to human. At first, it wasn't fatal, in fact there were two pandemics, one, earlier non-fatal one, and then the virus mutated to a more fatal one. I think it is that possibility that has health authorities worrying.

I had heard on the news that the mutation that makes the virus resistant to Tamiflu also stops the spread from human to human, don't know how accurate that is though.

While it may be possible, I'm still not really worried about it. The advancement of medical technology and knowledge is tremendous since 1918.

[Ferdinand Foch]

Yeah, that and Canada and the U.S. have pretty good healthcare systems, I think I can sleep easier through this.

[Marcel]

Originally Posted by Maestro

You know the weirdest part ? It's that the swine flu as a lower death ratio than the "traditional" flu... And no one is panicking about that said flu.

I read different. According to my sources mortality was 0,45%, compared to 0.30% for "normal" flu. I think people with little babies and old people should be worried.

[timshatz]

Originally Posted by gumbyk

Maestro,
I had the same thoughts as you regarding the lower fatality rate of the Swine Flu, but I was put straight.

The 1918 pandemic followed a similar pattern, jumping from animal to human. At first, it wasn't fatal, in fact there were two pandemics, one, earlier non-fatal one, and then the virus mutated to a more fatal one. I think it is that possibility that has health authorities worrying.

I had heard on the news that the mutation that makes the virus resistant to Tamiflu also stops the spread from human to human, don't know how accurate that is though.

Read a couple of books on it and you have it right. The first wave was fairly mild. But it mutated into a more efficient bug in later waves and became a real killer. Went from less than 1% to 5% fatality rate. Pretty brutal.

The people most affected (this is the 1918 influenza) were young adults. Roughly 20-40. The bug caused a reaction so severe that the body's reaction filled the lungs with fluid and they litterally drowned in the liquid. It wasn't the bug that killed them as the body's reaction to it that did the killing. The healthier and stronger you were, the more agressive your immune system was, the better your chances of dying. Odd, but that's the way this one worked.

No idea how this one is going to turn out (Swine Flu) but I am not looking forward to the fall and winter. It could be a bad one. This thing mutates into a more lethal form and it would be bad. And bugs always mutate. Usually after about 8 to 10 relications, it mutates itself. Most of the time, the mutations don't go anywhere. Rarely, they cause an increase in the fatalities as the bug becomes more aggressive in it's affects and the body reacts.

Right now, the southern hemisphere is in the middle of Winter. I'd be interested in hearing how this bug is faring south of the equator. Anybody from the south had it yet (on the board, I mean)? Anybody down south KNOW anybody who's had it?

[Maestro]

Originally Posted by Marcel

I read different. According to my sources mortality was 0,45%, compared to 0.30% for "normal" flu. I think people with little babies and old people should be worried.

May be the ratio depends on the country ? Because I clearly remember hearing on the radio that the "normal" flu was deadlier.

[Marcel]

Originally Posted by Maestro

May be the ratio depends on the country ? Because I clearly remember hearing on the radio that the "normal" flu was deadlier.

Could be, this was world wide, but maybe not very reliable. You'll need a very reliable count of the amount of ill people which is difficult if people don't go to the doctor to be tested (this also accounts for the normal season-flu).
Fact is, this is a nastier bug than the normal flu. According to a virologist I know, the virus tend to penetrate deeper into the lungs, making the results more severe than a normal flu.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I still am not worried about it. More people die every year from the regular flu. Unless you have health problems, you should be alright. Now that does not mean that I do not think it could get worse. Viruses mutate all the time, it could become something bad. I am not worried though as of yet. I think the media has been blowing this out of proportion so far.

We do however have it spreading around my area that I live in. There have been two confirmed cases at the airfield that I work at, and a German school very close by has been closed down do to 6 confirmed cases among students.

[Marcel]

Originally Posted by Maestro

May be the ratio depends on the country ? Because I clearly remember hearing on the radio that the "normal" flu was deadlier.

I found the reason for the confusion. It is said that the current virus has a lower mortality than earlier mutated Influenza viruses like Sars and the Birdflu,

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

So far the normal flu has a higher death rate. For instance in the United States on average 800 (aprox 35,000 a year)people die a week from the normal flu. Since the Swine Flu outbreak about 350 people have died in the United States, since like March.

In Germany about 5000 to 8000 people die per year from the normal flu, and they have not had a single case of someone die from it yet.

[gumbyk]

Most of the deaths that we have heard about down here in NZ have been healthy, 20-50 year olds, not the elderly and very young. There have been a couple of deaths of people who have already had compromised immune systems, but only a few. Trouble is, now they've stopped testing suspected cases (probably no point now, there's nothing you can do about it anyway) so there's now way of telling how widespread it is.

[Gnomey]

The healthy are more likely to die (in the under 60's) because they have not necessarily been exposed to a similar strain of the flu virus to swine flu and therefore are not immune. Besides if Tamiflu stops being effective there are plenty of other drugs available. Bird flu was also resistant to Tamiflu but there wasn't that many deaths from it because of the alternative treatments. Tamiflu is the main on because it is tablets, Relenza is just as effective but harder to administer and thus is not used first. However it is effective against Bird flu and as far as I know it is still effective against swine flu and that will continue after Tamiflu resistance is more widespread. There isn't that much to panic about yet...