The Chinese threat. Real or imagined?

[evangilder]

Well, they are starting to better the life of the citizens. The economy of China is now the fourth largest Economy in the world.

[mosquitoman]

Yes, but the worrying thing about China in my opinion is that although it's people want to be part of the world, the Communist party don't want that so censorship of everything is coming into effect- even Google is now censored for the Chinese. I just hope there isn't another Tianemen Square (an incident which is one of the many censored by google)

[syscom3]

But their per capita economy is still quite low.

The biggest threat beijing has to deal with is the ever widening gap between the prosperous coastal area's and the poorer interior.

[evangilder]

Agreed, syscom. But the prosperous areas are enjoying more wealth than they have ever had. It could be interesting to see what happens.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I personally dont think China will risk a global war. They have a large military and are modernizing it, but I think they know that against the US and her allies she has no chance in the long run. She may be successful at first but then she too would falter away.

[wmaxt]

Originally Posted by DerAdlerIstGelandet

I personally dont think China will risk a global war. They have a large military and are modernizing it, but I think they know that against the US and her allies she has no chance in the long run. She may be successful at first but then she too would falter away.

I want to agree with you but
1. They are putting their hard currency into the military not their economy where it would improve everything including the military.
2. The Chinese Govt looks at the general population like Stalin did - as expendable.
3. There desparate for natural resources esp. fuel.
4. 60% or more of our deployable forces are already ocupied.
5. They have twice the population of the "West" and are overpopulated.
6. They are decentralized.
7. Our wepons are pinpoint.
8. Our military is relatively small.
9. Our populations the 'West' are getting very heasitent about supporting any kind of war.
10. Why would the 'West' be interested in a long bloody war for resources that they aren't using and will have very little direct impact on there lives, at least at first?

Most of those points are the same ones Germany and Japan went to war over and in the case of Japan, against impossible odds many times greater than China would face while the Mid East is unstable and the 'West' is streached thin. Whats worse is WHAT do they have to lose - excess population?

I've been trying to play devils advocate - I don't like what I see!

wmaxt

[marconi]

Green text is written by me.
1. They are putting their hard currency into the military not their economy where it would improve everything including the military. - Can't say anything about it
2. The Chinese Govt looks at the general population like Stalin did - as expendable. - That's how it was when Mao was alive.Since then their political course has changed seriously.I wouldn't be so sure about China's attitude about its people.I could have changed too.
3. There desperate for natural resources esp. fuel. - They can buy them like everyone else.And if such war will happen that will mean that we've reached Peak Oil/Gas/Ore/whatever else.
4. 60% or more of our deployable forces are already occupied. - Yes
5. They have twice the population of the "West" and are overpopulated. - Yes.
6. They are decentralized. - I didn't get it.What are you talking about?
7. Our weapons are pinpoint. - This is a pointless statement.Yes, the USA have pinpoint weapons, so what?Is it bad for the USA?Besides it also has non-pinpoint weapons - nuclear and other.
8. Our military is relatively small. - It depends on what do you mean by "our military" - US forces or NATO.In any case it's not so small.Of course USA won't send to China 1 million soldiers to China.But we're living in 21st century, and quantity now is not the main factor.
9. Our populations the 'West' are getting very heasitent about supporting any kind of war. - This never stopped the beginning of any war.Besides they won't have any choice if China will start it.
10. Why would the 'West' be interested in a long bloody war for resources that they aren't using and will have very little direct impact on there lives, at least at first? - Hmm, can you specify which resources only China uses?And again if war is started then it is started and the only thing you can do is to fight if your government decides so.And believe me starting war with China is not the same thing as starting some suspicious anti-terror operation in region rich with oil (I'm not saying anything I won't tell you what I think about war in Iraq.No.Never.Don't even ask.). Peoples reaction will be very different.

I think that only statement about resources can be the reason of war.But in this case war can be started by anyone - China, Russia, USA, Mexico etc.Any other suggestions mentioned here can only heat up the desire for fight or stop it: No one will start the war only because the opponent is twice weaker than you - only if it has something that you want.But you will think twice if your opponent is as strong as you.

[syscom3]

I would beg to differ about the PRC being decentralized. All communist countries are by nature highly centralized.

Remember that the PRC is surrounded by countries that historically distrust them and would never even think of appeasing them.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Originally Posted by marconi

That's how it was when Mao was alive.Since then their political course has changed seriously.I wouldn't be so sure about China's attitude about its people.I could have changed too.

I really doubt that has changed. China does not have the greatest human rights record. God forbid you are born with a vagina...

[plan_D]

I'd play with it all day ... oh, right sorry you weren't actually putting that up for discussion.

No, but seriously, I do not think China has the capability to wage effective war and the government knows it. The Western World does, in fact, have large stockpiles of weaponary - the U.S alone keeps many of it's 'old' aircraft ready for service, there's much than just what's actively in service. And they all sure have plenty of manpower to draw on ... honestly, China would be slaughtered in conventional warfare.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I really dont think the Chinese have the reserves of oil and so forth to wage a long war. I personally think that a war with China would drag out only because of there size of there military, but as for technology the west has them beat.

[plan_D]

Do they have the armour to support their manpower though? I shall admit that I have little knowledge on the armoured forces of China, and even less knowledge on their air force.

Maybe it's a just a stereotype, but aren't China still using T-55s, T-72s and T-80s?

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Yes China are using T-55's T-72's and T-80s. T-80's are not that great compared to Leopard 2, Challengers or Abrams but they are still a viable threat. There Airforce is made up of mostly Russian Aircraft.

Here is a break down of Chinas Military Power, the number per type is noted after.

Tanks

Type 59 (T-54): 5000
Type 62: 400
Type 63 (PT-76): 600
Type 69/79 (T-55): 150/300
Type 80: 500
Type 85: 450
Type 88: 900
Type 90 (T-72): ???
Type 96: 1500
Type 98: 80+ w/. 20 built per year.

They army also uses:

Armored Vehicles

Type 63
Type 77
Type 85
Type 86
Type 89
WZ-501
WZ-503
WZ-504
WZ-505
WZ-506
WZ-523
WZ-551
WZ-751
YW-304
YW-307
YW-309
YW-531
YW-531H
YW-701
YZ-750

Anti-tank Weapons

HJ-8
HJ-73 AT-3

Anti-Aircraft

Type 55 M1939
Type 56 KS-18
Type 56 ZPU-4
Type 58 ZPU-2
Type 59 KS-19
Type 59 S-60
Type 63
Type 65
Type 72 KS-12
Type 74
Type 80 23mm
Type 80 57mm
Type 87 25mm
Type 88 37mm
Type 90 35mm
Type 90II

Towed Artillery

Type 54
Type 59 M-46
Type 60 D-74
Type 66 M-55
Type 83 122mm
Type 83 152mm
Type 86
WAC-021

Self-Propelled Artillery

105mm SPH [WZ-551]
120mm SPM [YW-381]
120mm SPM [WZ-551]
122mm SPH [WZ-551]
130mm SPG
203mm SPH
PLZ-45
Type 54 SPH
Type 70
Type 83 SPH
Type 85
Type 89

Artillery Rockets

A100 300mm
M-1B 350mm
Type 63 107mm
Type 63 130mm
Type 70 130mm
Type 81 122mm
Type 81 107mm
Type 82 130mm
Type 83 273mm
Type 85 130mm
Type 89 122mm
Type 90 122mm
Type ?? 122mm
WM-80 273mm
WS-1 320mm

[plan_D]

That's embarassing. They are still using thousands of T-54/55s in combat units. The Western Armoured forces would slaughter them even without aerial support. In Iraq, British Challenger 2s met Iraqi T-55s and T-72s and picked them off easily without a single loss to themselves.

With that armoured force, China hasn't got a chance on a global war. Thank you for the information, Adler.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

The main problem with the T-54/T-55 is that it does not have the capability (well much of a capability) to engage moving targets or targets that are moving.