The Chinese threat. Real or imagined?

plan_D · 01-29-2006, 10:50 AM

I think it could be upgraded to do so. But that it not the only problem with the T-54/55, it is completely out-dated as a direct combat vehicle. It lacks the hitting power, protection and mobility of modern tanks. In open conflict between a Challenger 2 and T-55s ... it would be more of a slaughter than a Tiger vs. T-34/76s.

the lancaster kicks ass · 01-29-2006, 11:08 AM

Quote:

moving targets or targets that are moving

aren't they the same thing?

Gnomey · 01-29-2006, 11:13 AM

Yes but the effect would be the same, then again a tank war with China would be similar to the Eastern Front, with a few Western tanks knocking out scores of Chinese tanks but then the Chinese would have a huge manpower advantage so maybe they would be acceptable losses to them...

plan_D · 01-29-2006, 11:19 AM

Not in this day and age. Remember that the heavy German forces were unreliable, many were not knocked out but abandoned due to lack of fuel or mechanical failure. This is the key point, the Tiger's and Panthers of the Wehrmacht were rarely knocked out by opposing armour. Today the armour of the West is much more reliable ... and the scores of Chinese tanks would be obliterated by armour and air alike with deadly precision that they could not match.

syscom3 · 01-29-2006, 11:36 AM

the PRC may have all those tanks, but they still have no way to move them around outside their borders and supply them.

When I look at a map of the Indian and Pacific Ocean, the only place they could use tanks would be in Australia, and that assumes they can sail or fly them 3000 miles without being sunk or shotdown and then have enough of them on hand to threaten the continent.

Now if they sent their tanks northward into Siberia, then they would be nuked. End of battle right there.

plan_D · 01-29-2006, 11:38 AM

They don't need to be nuked, this is the point I am making. T-54/55s are incapable of modern combat, no matter how many there are. Western armour, and the modern Russian armour would obliterate them by the hundreds and I'm not joking.

An M1A2 Abrams or Challenger 2 facing up against T-55s would only stop killing them because they'd run out of ammo.

FLYBOYJ · 01-29-2006, 12:39 PM

I'll worry the day I see the Chinese with 20 or 30 aircraft Carriers, thousands of strike aircraft with F-117 capability and a modern 1000 ship navy. If you look at their current inventory, they're still flying Mig-19s, as D pointed out, still use T-54/55s and still have a lot of other inferior equipment. The only land grab they're looking at is Tiawan. The're people are starting to live well and eveyone is making money, the Chinese government don't want to risk that.

syscom3 · 01-29-2006, 01:21 PM

exactly

wmaxt · 01-29-2006, 04:55 PM

If it were that simple they wouldn't be putting so much emphasis on their military first. If they upgraded their economy and manufacturing first the other including the military would follow in a relatively short time - but their not.

I don't belive our pinpoint, limited war philosophy will work in an area so spread out with the numbers of men and equipment that will be committed. You also have to take into account the mobilization of the West's armies which will take up to 6 months to effectively counter attack IF we have a place to mobilize to.

I'm still playing devils advocate here, your comments are valid but equaly valid comments were made before other major conflicts before.

wmaxt

syscom3 · 01-29-2006, 05:46 PM

As in every conflict, its logistics that matter. The PRC cannot go on any adventures in the forseable future because it still has a limited capability to supply an infantry or armoured division at modern standards.

The only place for its armoured divisions to go would be northwards, and the Russians would not allow that to happen.

Everywhere else in the Pacific, SE Asia and E Asia is not terrain conducive for armoured warfare.

I however do see them making troubles in the Spratley islands. I would not be surprised to see the next big conflict in the world to be PRC vs ASEAN and Australia

Gnomey · 01-29-2006, 07:21 PM

In my opinion syscom if that war happens then America and NATO will likely get involved and the Chinese will loose, they do not have the amphibious capability to hold up against what the West has (this includes Austrialia etc). If the went North the Russians wouldn't allow it and the Chinese would get a beating from the few elements of the Russian army that would engage them. They would then loose most of their export market and their oil (until they captured some), without Oil you cannot fight a modern war...

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 01-30-2006, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the lancaster kicks ass

Quote:

moving targets or targets that are moving

aren't they the same thing?

Just saw that....

Harvard · 02-04-2006, 12:09 PM

I've met many Chinese in college. They are very moral people, even more so than most Americans.

I say go to China , and meet the people. Chinese don't want war. The Chinese are peace loving, and they don't want to conquer others either. They just want to defend their land. As far as Taiwan is concerned we westerners should stay out of it, and let Taiwan and China fight over what they want to do. There's no reason for concern any more; the days of Mao are long gone.

Alot of what you hear about their human rights abuses are exaggerated by the media. Here in the US we have far worse problems. We have too many lawyers, too much selfishness, and too much greed.

Lastly, there is nothing to worry about with China; Muslim extremists are ostrasized. I think a real cause for concern are militant muslims. It's a very serious problem.

syscom3 · 02-04-2006, 01:05 PM

The Chinese are ruthless when it comes to handing dissidents. They tolerate no dissent. Its ok to do anything to earn money, but dont challange or say bad things about the govt.

Human rights is an important thing. Freedom of speech is among them.

wmaxt · 02-04-2006, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gnomey

In my opinion syscom if that war happens then America and NATO will likely get involved and the Chinese will loose, they do not have the amphibious capability to hold up against what the West has (this includes Austrialia etc). If the went North the Russians wouldn't allow it and the Chinese would get a beating from the few elements of the Russian army that would engage them. They would then loose most of their export market and their oil (until they captured some), without Oil you cannot fight a modern war...

This is a very simplistic view in my opinion, We don't have a prayer of invading China, amphibious capabilities or not. China itself doesn't need amphib capability to take Korea, Vietnam, Thiland, the rest of SE Asia or Siberia. Give them 5 years and our 339 F-22s will be up to against their 2,000+ SU-27s? How long did it take us to prepare for Deasert Storm 6 months? Every country that could help is more than 1,000mi away and what do we use for a staging area there are NO forward bases in the area today or the near future like we had in Saudi Arabia for DS.

None of their likely targets have any defensive capabilities to speek of, so any incursions by China will be initialy successful.

The people of China are good people but the Govt is the same as it ever was, these guys have just figured out that a little capitalism will bring more wealth into the country.

They are building their military without cause and realisticaly no one could even slow them down for the first 6months to a year after which they will have consolodated their gains. The West has a lot of hi tech but that also means about half our troops are dedicated to logistics, supply and maintenance. The entire west as a whole can put up 2 million troops give or take against half a Billion if China really decides to fight (thats only 250 to 1).

Remember to the Chinese think a little differently than we do, and a desperate Govt tends to overlook their own weaknesses and over estimate their prospective targets.

Just playing Devils Advocate.

wmaxt