The Chinese threat. Real or imagined?

marconi · 01-08-2006, 08:55 PM

" The government is estimated to spend around 25% (2005) of the nation's GDP on the military."
" Mainland China and South Korea are the biggest trade partners of North Korea, with trade with China increasing 38% to $1.02 billion in 2003, and trade with South Korea increasing 12% to $724 million in 2003."
From wikipedia.

Harvard · 01-09-2006, 12:06 AM

They are not a threat. Get to know many Chinese people, they are nicer than typical westerners. They don't want to conquer the world, they just want stability in their region. I don't bleme them at all!

syscom3 · 01-09-2006, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harvard

They are not a threat. Get to know many Chinese people, they are nicer than typical westerners. They don't want to conquer the world, they just want stability in their region. I don't bleme them at all!

Stability on their terms.

You seem to forget that many people in the region are suspicious of the Chinese for one reason or another.

FLYBOYJ · 01-09-2006, 01:56 AM

Chinese government says general's comments on nuclear issue were personal views

BEIJING (AP) - China tried to quell an uproar Saturday over a general's comment that Beijing might use nuclear weapons against the United States in a conflict over Taiwan, saying the statement was his personal opinion.

But the communist government reaffirmed that it would not permit the self-ruled island to pursue formal independence - a step Beijing says it would go to war to stop.

The U.S. State Department on Friday criticized the remark by Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu, a dean at China's National Defense University, as "highly irresponsible" and asked for Chinese assurance that it didn't reflect official thinking.

Zhu told visiting Hong Kong-based reporters recently that China would respond with nuclear weapons if the United States drew its missiles and position-guided ammunition into the target zone on China's territory.

The official Xinhua News Agency said Zhu's comments were "personal views," citing a statement from the Foreign Ministry issued late Friday.

"Zhu had repeatedly emphasized that he would express personal view on the issues that the reporters were interested in," the statement said, according to Xinhua.

It did not say how China would respond to a U.S. attack or mention its nuclear readiness. China is one of five countries that have acknowledged their nuclear weapons stockpiles and agreed to negotiate toward nuclear disarmament. The other recognized nuclear states are the United States, Russia, Britain, and France.

The statement added that China would "never tolerate Taiwan independence" and would not allow "anybody with any means to separate Taiwan from the motherland."

China claims Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949, as part of its territory and has threatened to invade if the self-governing island declares formal independence or puts off talks on unification.

However, the statement said "we firmly abide by the principles of peaceful reunification."

In Taipei, an official in charge of Taiwan's policy toward Beijing said Zhu should apologize for comments that conflict with "mainstream thinking of the civilized world."

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 01-09-2006, 03:25 AM

While I will agree that the Chinese people do not wish for war, the government on the otherhand might have a different agenda especially when it comes to Taiwan. I believe the government wants to project its power.

I however do not believe that China will risk a war.

wmaxt · 01-23-2006, 06:12 PM

What one has to consider is this, China has close to 2 billion people and the resources for about 1/3 of that, few POL reserves, and poor mineral reserves. Try as they might they haven't been able to curb their population. Their making great strides updating their military and its support capabilities and have used a very high percentage of their export revenue for that purpose. There is NO outside threat to China.

Siberia has the resources China needs desparately and the economic and military capability of the former USSR isn't enough to stop them. The problem there is that Siberia is only a temporary solution to their population/resource issues - where do they go next?

wmaxt

syscom3 · 01-23-2006, 07:15 PM

The Russians have long threatened to nuke China if they tried to annex Siberia.

I dont think China is intent on becoming a military expansionist power. To much of their economy is dependent on exports. If they stir up troubles, they wont be exporting and that isnt "profitable".

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 01-24-2006, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by syscom3

I dont think China is intent on becoming a military expansionist power. To much of their economy is dependent on exports. If they stir up troubles, they wont be exporting and that isnt "profitable".

That really does not matter if you plan on taking what you need.

syscom3 · 01-24-2006, 05:00 PM

The only place for them to go to secure raw materials is into SE Asia. And those countries have long had a distrust of the chinese (even amongst their own chinese citizens) and would fight back.

I dont think the PRC would invade other countries because it would start a global war.

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 01-25-2006, 04:03 AM

Who cares if they would fight back, can they stop them. However I do agree with you on fear of starting a global war and that is why they will not do it.

wmaxt · 01-25-2006, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerAdlerIstGelandet

Who cares if they would fight back, can they stop them. However I do agree with you on fear of starting a global war and that is why they will not do it.

When your desparate you start thinking like the Japanese did in WWII, hit them quick it'll be over with and let diplomacy smooth the ruffled feathers.

China has nukes, the Russians aren't in a position to use nukes which would escalate into losing a lot more than Siberia.

China is making a huge effort to modernize not only the military but its ability to support and sustain that military - WHY? No one threatens China in any way, now or in the forseeable future. The proffits China is making with its exports is almost exclusively earmarked for its military aquisitions - not up grading its social conditions, or productivity in relation to the marketable world - why?

The US and its Allies is the worlds peace keeper right now and were at the breaking point with what we have going on now. It would take 6 months or more to stage any resistance to any move China might make, remember our carriers would be of limited use - whats to stop them? Think of this, one of China's major problems is overpopulation and their view of the common person is poor to say the least - do you think they would hesitate to sacrifice a half a billion to gain the resources (and ease the population problem) that would make it a real, competitive superpower?

wmaxt

syscom3 · 01-25-2006, 05:27 PM

The Russians have lots of nukes and would be more than able to use them. Actually, its China that has more to lose than Russia.

pbfoot · 01-26-2006, 04:53 PM

according to Taiwanese news sources the PRC has puchased and is in the process of upgrading a carrier from the Ukraine the PRC denies this but I don't know how you conceal a carrier
http://www.aero-news.net/news/milita...6dba&Dynamic=1

wmaxt · 01-26-2006, 05:02 PM

Nukes are a losing deal all around - no advantage especialy if your foe can retaliate in kind. Second what are they going to nuke, by the time a decision is made to use them a large hunk of Siberia will be occupied. Do you nuke the invading army and contaminate/destroy what you are trying to save? Or do you nuke China proper - gaining what - population reduction and retaliation with the possibility of widening the war to include Russia proper. The Chinese CAN trade soldiers 1 to 1 with Russia and win.

The Chinese are mobilizing and upgrading their military with no credable threat - why?
The Chinese are earmarking their hard proffits from exports on their military when they could be using it to improve their ability to compete on the free market - why?

wmaxt