Fighting the battles - Loosing the real war

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

[P38 Pilot]

What? Im just laughing it off.

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by syscom3

The Chinese have forgotten the old economic saying of "when I owe you 1 million dollars, I am in trouble, when I owe you 1 billion dollars, youre in trouble".

In the world of economics, things always get corrected. Sooner or later, their economy will slow down.

Plus even with their growth rates, theyre still a 3rd world economy highly dependant on foreign oil.

You assume they are now capitalists - THEY ARE NOT!

Money has little long term value to them, as unlike us it is not the root of their power base. The rules of "ecomomics" do not apply. When their economy starts to slow down they will simply expand military production to keep it hot.

Yes they are dependant on foriegn oil... but they have huge supplies of coal. And they have neighbors with oil.

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by R988

OK, Militarily, the USA still has a shedload of nuclear weapons and a lots of chemical and biological weapons it can use. The USA also has a track record of using them and being more keen to use them than anyone else. People make the mistake of writing off the US because they only see it trying to fight limited battles while trying to 'play nice'. If it came down to a war of survival though the gloves come off and the US wont go down without taking everyone with them.

Track record of "using them"? What are you talking about? The last time we used a WMD was in WWII, before it really even understood what an WMD was. These would be a last resort and probably only used if we were attacked by WMD's first.

Besides that, you imply some kind of direct attack against the USA. That is not what is going to happen. China's first move will probably be against Tiawan, which they still consider a rouge province and part of China.

Originally Posted by R988

Economically, China's population is also ageing faster than the US thanks to China's one child policy, so their population has a large bubble of old people like most other western nations, except even worse. In fact the good ol' US is one of the very few western nations that actually maintains a birth rate equal to and even above replacement level. This will also affect economics in the future, China wont have it's cheap labour forever. The US also has lots of cheap labour in Mexico and Mexican immigrants, should it choose to use them.

The Chineese ethos does not require them to care for the elderly the way the Western ethos does. They still have pleanty of population to work with.

Originally Posted by R988

China also relies mainly on foreign technology, sure they came up with paper and fireworks a very long time ago, but what have they invented lately? Squat. They just copy stuff from everyone else, not good, especially not in a war, whether economic or military because it means you're always a step behind. They have developed indigenous aircraft and equipment but they have still relied on Russia, Israel and stolen US stuff to copy.

It does not matter where they get the tech from, only that they have it and can expand upon it and produce it effectively. Also the Chineese are leaders in several fields of science - nano-technology is one example. The Chineese education system by percentage does not produce as many college graduates as the USA, but by numbers it produces more. And these are very well educated and capable engineers and scientists.

Underestimating your enemy is the first and most deadly of mistakes!

Originally Posted by R988

Investment wise, the Chinese do invest a lot in the US, however US companies have also massively invested in China so it's a two way street. What you dont understand is that the Chinese economy is still very reliant on exports, mainly to the USA. So you see the Chinese HAVE to provide their cheap credit and pour money into the US, because then the US people have more money to spend on Chinese imports. If the US economy slumped into depression then Chinese goods would become too expensive or unneeded so people wouldn't buy them anymore. Then Chinas economy goes to hell in a handbasket because the US is it's biggest market by far and the worlds largest consumer market by a mile. When the US economy sneezes the world catches a cold.

Again, this assumes the Chineese are really capitalists - THEY ARE NOT!

The Chineese are using the Western economies to build and modernize their own. But when the time comes they will simply divert the product into their own economy, re-initialize their monetary system if needed, and shift much of their new productive capacity from consumer to military goods.

Originally Posted by R988

Now assuming you're correct and the US government is using all that cheap Chinese credit to fund it's war machine, then that Chinese money is being spent on American military equipment, almost all of which is still made in the US, by US companies, and the salaries of US personnel. So all that money the Chinese cunningly giving away is actually mostly going to help the US build and maintain it's military machine and domestic economy. Those Chinese sure are masterminds at global manipulation aren't they, except they are dealing with the US who have been doing this sort of thing for longer than the PRC has existed as an entity.

If only that were true. The Chineese are investing in US securities (and other financial markets). This provides something around 35% to 45% of the available credit (and the Saudis provide another 11-15%, and India...). Americans are using this credit as if it were income, running up debt and spending on items of short term value and rent/mortgages.

If the US government were only spending the increased tax revenue to fund the war machine that would not be such a big deal. But they are not, instead record deficit spending is underway.

Originally Posted by R988

The main economic worry is actually that the Chinese economy is growing too fast for infrastructure and development to keep up, they are desperately trying to slow it down to avoid the over inflation that will occur.

By the way, when it comes to economics it's best to read some proper respectable economic publications rather than some obscure conspiracy site written by a bearded conspiracy nut hiding under his bed from imaginery black helicopters circling his house.

LOL - I have a degree in Economics (focusing on Micro-Economics and International Trade), I've read all the "proper" publications. What's your background on this subject?

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by evangilder

Excellent post R988. While the Chinese may have extended credit in a big way to the US, no doubt, they would also lose their biggest customer if the fit hit the shan. I know you are not a Bush fan, Lunatic, but that post reads like a Democratic talking points list, with a sprinkling of tin-foil hat wearing theories.

No I don't like the Neo-Conservatives. I don't like the Liberals either. I'm a true conservative in most respects. I believe that you must live within your means or disaster will result.

You just don't get it - the Chineese are a COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP! They could give a poop about loosing their "biggest customer" in the long run. They are just using the western economy to move their technological base into the 21st century.

Why is it that Westerners think everyone else thinks like they do? Isn't it clear now that the Islamic nations do not think like we do? Neither do the Chineese!

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by FLYBOYJ

The day you see the Chinese building a MODERN 800 ship navy hosting 20 MODERN aircraft carriers and 40 or 50 MODERN nuke carrying submarines, start worring. Until then this is all "pie in the sky."

They don't need Aircraft carriers, unless they want to project force into North or South America.

They have nukes too you know?

The Chineese have a steath fighter project underway called the J-XX, and have several hundred Soviet designed fighters in their current arsonel. The SU-30's they've purchased from the Soviets, the SU-27's the mostly build themselves.

The point is that their technology is modernizing very quickly. When they turn their economy towards weaponry, it will not take them long to produce a formidable military.

And they do not need to attack us. All they need to be able to do is to be formidable enough that when they act upon their neighbors we will not intervene.

We are already seeing how difficult it is to fight an enemy who has a much lower value of human life than we do. The Arab States have a smaller population than the Western States. Imagine facing a foe that has a much much larger population it is quite willing to spend against us.

[syscom3]

800 ships? Does that include row boats?

20 Aircraft carriers? hmmmmm

Those must be typo's. Not even the US could afford such a navy.

[FLYBOYJ]

Originally Posted by Lunatic

They don't need Aircraft carriers, unless they want to project force into North or South America.

They have nukes too you know?

The Chineese have a steath fighter project underway called the J-XX, and have several hundred Soviet designed fighters in their current arsonel. The SU-30's they've purchased from the Soviets, the SU-27's the mostly build themselves.

The point is that their technology is modernizing very quickly. When they turn their economy towards weaponry, it will not take them long to produce a formidable military.

And they do not need to attack us. All they need to be able to do is to be formidable enough that when they act upon their neighbors we will not intervene.

But in the terms you place they'll do that until the time comes to confront the US directly. At that time they'll need a large force that could project and delver power. And their nukes??? If they want us, you know they'll have to take us alive so I think nukes will be limited.

Originally Posted by Lunatic

We are already seeing how difficult it is to fight an enemy who has a much lower value of human life than we do. The Arab States have a smaller population than the Western States. Imagine facing a foe that has a much much larger population it is quite willing to spend against us.

They'll just do waht they did during the Korean War - it's called the "Chinese Wave."

[FLYBOYJ]

Originally Posted by syscom3

800 ships? Does that include row boats?

20 Aircraft carriers? hmmmmm

Those must be typo's. Not even the US could afford such a navy.

Based on their capacity, they probably could, but based on their current quality they'll need to build that many to get half that operational!

[evangilder]

I fully understand what the government of China is and I know they don't think like we do. I DO get it. But for god's sake, can you at least spell Chinese correctly?!

[plan_D]

And LOSING. It's one O.

[P38 Pilot]

Originally Posted by syscom3

800 ships? Does that include row boats?

I could see those Chinese sailors:
(Chinese Accent)
"OHhhh! Full speed ahead!!"
"But sir, we only have 8 arms!!"

[Lunatic]

Originally Posted by FLYBOYJ

But in the terms you place they'll do that until the time comes to confront the US directly. At that time they'll need a large force that could project and delver power. And their nukes??? If they want us, you know they'll have to take us alive so I think nukes will be limited.
They'll just do waht they did during the Korean War - it's called the "Chinese Wave."

I agree, there would be no nuclear war, unless we went crazy and started one. With the Western economies in shambles the Chinese would become the new dominant World power.

My whole point in this thread is that we are playing into their hands by failing to run our economy in a responsible manner. The war in Iraq is pure folly - it is costing us billions we don't have and it will not result in a "democracy" when all is said and done. Anyone who has spent any significant amount of time amoung the Arabs knows the dream of an Western style democracy in Iraq is nothing but fantasy.

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by Lunatic

I agree, there would be no nuclear war, unless we went crazy and started one. With the Western economies in shambles the Chinese would become the new dominant World power.

....

If the western world is in shambles, how could China be in any better shape since we are their biggest customers?

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Originally Posted by Lunatic

Track record of "using them"? What are you talking about? The last time we used a WMD was in WWII, before it really even understood what an WMD was. These would be a last resort and probably only used if we were attacked by WMD's first.

I said that while back and I am still waiting for his response. I dont think he will respond because he saw how stupid it was.