Should America Become Isolationist?

[renrich]

Thanks Sys, I appreciate the info.

[timshatz]

One point about Posse Comitatus, it sometimes (not often and hardly ever in the present day) is ignored and the local federal troops take over. Usually under implied or assumed Martial Law. Last time that it happened on a large scale was the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906. However, it is not a common event.

I had dinner last night with a friend who is big in invetments up in NYC. We kicked around the US currency and it's current valuation. Both were of the feeling that the days of the dollar being supreme are coming to an end, if not already over. In future, it will be one of a basket of currencies that is traded.

What does that mean to US Citizens. Simply put, the US can no longer run up debt, devaluing the Currency to pay for it. Congress will have to have some checks put on it's spending on the value of the dollar will fall precipitously. Similar to what happend to the the Lira.

We have major debt problems ahead of us in Medicare and Social Security. The overall estimated cost of these two items is in excess of 40 Trillion dollars. Our total economy is valued at roughly 12 trillion.

We will pull back (in a military way) as we do not have the monies to pay for it. That is almost a given. However, my worry is not about the financial affect on the country but the affect a Democratic (party) would have on the military. If they control both Congress and the Presidency, I fear they will attempt to turn the military into a social program/social experiment as it is in many European countries.

[renrich]

There is a tremendous amount of cash being generated by the oil producing countries and by the exports of China and increasingly by India. That cash cannot be processed by the countries generating it. That cash can only be stored in dollars or invested in the only country with deep enough capital pools to handle it, the US. The result will be the deep dollarization of the global system. The dollar will be the foundation of the entire system. I believe the devaluation of the dollar mentioned was because of inflation. We no longer are suffering from the inflation of the 70s and 80s, thanks largely to the global economy and the internet. However the looming problem of funding social security and medicare will need to be addressed. Bush tried but failed on that score. If the dems get in fears about runaway social spending and the degradation of our military will be realistic.

[syscom3]

Renrich, there is also the issue of political, economic, judicial and regulatory stability of the US.

Compared to many other countries (and the EU), we are still the first, second, third and fourth choices to store wealth when there is instability in the world.

[Emac44]

Well as I view the current situation the USA has no choice but be the World's Policeman as a SuperPower. Even though the USA is heavily critized for it. Too Many are willing to point out the flaws of US Foriegn Policies and Military Decission making but I shudder at thinking of the alternative if the US decided to pick up its bat and ball and went home to become Isolationist as it tried to prior to 1941. And even then the US wasn't entirely Isolationist and became a weapons supplier to England and the Commonwealth under Lend Lease and protecting convoys in the Atlantic Ocean and the consequent events that followed. Examples of the Military Pressence in Philippines and the Pacific as examples being another as I view it. So I voted keep it as it is.

As for the United Nations. I view it like a Weak Trade Union. It is only as strong as its members but can be distorted by special interest groups when the time and place arises. I also see it as a PAPER TIGER or as we Aussies refer to some brands of New Zealand Beer as Arms and Legs No GUTS. No offence to the Kiwis of course just my view of the UN

[F-14]

america acts like a Insurence policy for many countries especialy ones in the persian gulf if the American withdraw and become isolestionist then the Aeabian penisula will become the Persian peninsula

[Derfman]

Isolationism is SO tempting at times..........

However, the biggest problem with isolationism is that Berkeley is within the boarders of the U.S.

I have this fantasy of seeing the Berkeley Bigots putting their necks where their mouths are, actually having to face the murderous thugs in places like Durfar in the Sudan, being on film attempting to stop some Islamic slave raiders (without guns),.......... But I know the world does not work like that.

But I can dream.....

Besides, if the above came to pass, all they'd do is cut a deal that let them blame the U.S. while the murderous thugs continued to murder at will.

[freebird]

Originally Posted by syscom3

Renrich, there is also the issue of political, economic, judicial and regulatory stability of the US.

Compared to many other countries (and the EU), we are still the first, second, third and fourth choices to store wealth when there is instability in the world.

Not anymore Syscom, the instability of your financial markets has driven alot of investors elsewhere.

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by freebird

Not anymore Syscom, the instability of your financial markets has driven alot of investors elsewhere.

And just like migratory birds, they always come back.

[freebird]

Originally Posted by syscom3

And just like migratory birds, they always come back.

Some do some don't. Depends how long your morgage crisis & recession will last. The US is not as dominant in worl financial markets as it was during the cold war.

[renrich]

Don't make me laugh as I just had oral surgery but the US "recession" at this point is in your mind and on the idiots in the media. Remember my rule, if it is in the media it is either inaccurate and exaggerated or a damn lie!

[freebird]

What do you think is the defenition of recession? Are the financial & morgage problems just imagined too?

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I am not really sure if we are in a recession or not but I can tell you the Dollar needs to gain some strength on the damn Euro.

I feel how bad the Dollar is against the Euro every damn day! I get paid in Dollars and have to pay my rent, phone bill, electricity, water, heating, and some of my food and things that I need in Euro.

The Dollar is very weak against the Euro....

[ToughOmbre]

Originally Posted by freebird

What do you think is the defenition of recession? Are the financial & morgage problems just imagined too?

Recession: The Newspaper Definition

The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.

This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons.

First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.

Recession: The BCDC Definition

The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it’s called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

TO

[freebird]

Originally Posted by renrich

Don't make me laugh as I just had oral surgery but the US "recession" at this point is in your mind and on the idiots in the media. Remember my rule, if it is in the media it is either inaccurate and exaggerated or a damn lie!

Originally Posted by DerAdlerIstGelandet

I am not really sure if we are in a recession or not but I can tell you the Dollar needs to gain some strength on the damn Euro.

I feel how bad the Dollar is against the Euro every damn day! .

The Dollar is very weak against the Euro....

Same story here Chris, 3 years ago the Can dollar was worth about 70 cents US$. Now they are even.

Originally Posted by ToughOmbre

Recession: The Newspaper Definition

The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.

This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons.

First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence.

TO

I think they are in the technical defenition of a recession. Regardless, the housing slump, morgage crisis etc. don't make things look good. And the Prez just signed the biggest budget ever...