Should America Become Isolationist?

[ToughOmbre]

Originally Posted by freebird

I think they are in the technical defenition of a recession. Regardless, the housing slump, morgage crisis etc. don't make things look good. And the Prez just signed the biggest budget ever...

If you can understand the American economy, more power to you. I think the The Business Cycle Dating Committee definition of what a recession is makes the most sense.

I believe the proposed budget is irrelevant. At least I've never heard that the size of a budget is cause and effect for a recession.

Are we in one yet

I don't know. But my IRA is down about 9% since the end of October.

TO

[renrich]

Freebird, I don't know how old you are or if you remember the 1980s and our economy. I remember well. When Reagan first became president interest rates and inflation were both high. The Fed then forced interest rates even higher until at one point I was paying 21% interest in 1982-83. I and 5 other builders owed a bank 9M dollars and our carry was around 30K dollars a quarter each. Subsequently, in the mid to late 80s, almost every Savings and Loan in the US went tits up. Almost every bank in Texas, especially the big ones went tits up. Every builder in Dallas inlcuding me caught RAIDS (recently acquired income deficiency syndrome) Some builders I know swallowed their pistol. I did not(surprise) I was so smart I got a divorce during the worst real estate recession since the Great Depression. She got the mine and I got the shaft and went broke. This was during the time that Reagan was spending money like a drunken sailor on defense expenditures in order to break the Soviets(it is said) Our national debt then(adjusted for inflation and as a percentage of GDP) makes our national debt now look small. Then peace broke out, the Berlin wall went down and defense spending was cut back. Interest rates dropped and job growth went in the toilet and the builders that were left went broke. That finished off the rest of the S&Ls. If you recall when GHW Bush ran the second time we were in a real recession and because of that and that prick Ross Perot who took 19% of the vote Clinton was handed the election. So to me this little correction we are having is mostly being exaggerated and exacerbated by the media and the dems in order to make Bush look bad and to hand the election to the dems.

[Njaco]

Ask any economicist and they will tell you they can't even recognize a recession until about 10 months after the event. With the short term of a recession (as stated about a year - most even less) the storm has passed - if there was one. Wait. Was that a piece of sky falling?

Every builder in Dallas inlcuding me caught RAIDS (recently acquired income deficiency syndrome) Some builders I know swallowed their pistol. I did not(surprise) I was so smart I got a divorce during the worst real estate recession since the Great Depression. She got the mine and I got the shaft and went broke.

Now I know why we think alike!

[freebird]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbre

If you can understand the American economy, more power to you. I think the The Business Cycle Dating Committee definition of what a recession is makes the most sense.

They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it’s called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I believe the proposed budget is irrelevant. At least I've never heard that the size of a budget is cause and effect for a recession.
Are we in one yet

I don't know. But my IRA is down about 9% since the end of October.

TO

Did the BCDC say that its a recession?

Originally Posted by renrich

So to me this little correction we are having is mostly being exaggerated and exacerbated by the media and the dems in order to make Bush look bad and to hand the election to the dems.

In any event if its called the dreaded "recession" word or the less dangerous sounding "correction" its a bad trend nonetheless.

Ren, I'll agree with you that all the Pol's will try to spin it.

TO I'm not an economist, but basic common sense says that you can't spend more than you earn, and it doesn't work any better in the economy than it does in personal finance.

There are quite a few countries that depend on the good 'ol USA for their security, and don't pay much if anything for it.

There was an interesting story that Saddam demanded 1 Billion dollars, to go into exile somewhere {wherever evil murderous dictators hang out & play shuffleboard} Perhaps that wasn't such a bad deal after all....

[ToughOmbre]

Originally Posted by freebird

Did the BCDC say that its a recession?

I have no idea.....haven't found any data from them, one way or another.

TO

[renrich]

Njaco, yep I knew we had something in common. I forgot to add in my recent rant that the weakness(so called) of the dollar is not unprecedented as it has been in the same shape relatively many times in the past. The good news is that the weak dollar makes US products more attractive to foreign buyers so manufacturers are busy filling orders(when they can get skilled workers) You are so right that we can't really know we are in a recession until we are well into it. I saw some guy on the internet forecasting that a recession was not if but when. Well, of course, as far as I know it is impossible for an economy(even a nationalised one)to keep continually growing without occasional retrenchments. As far as I am concerned those retrenchments are healthy. Of course, when the US economy gets the sniffles, some of the rest of the world's economies get pneumonia. Tough cookies! What burns me up and it relates to our economic well being as well as everything else is somebody somewhere (and they always have an agenda) comes up with a study that says: "We have 47 M people in the USA without health insurance," or they say "We have 11M illegal immigrants in the USA," or maybe it is 20M. First thing I want to know is how do they know that? Did they interview all those people? If you can count all the illegals then how come we can't deport them? The media and the damn politicians(if it suits their agenda) pick up these numbers and go around spouting them everywhere. Pretty soon everyone "knows" that 47M people don't have health insurance. Oh my God! People are dying like flies for lack of medical care! Did you ever hear of anyone who had a bad car accident, got boogered up pretty bad, who died for lack of medical treatment? I know, some medical treatment is better than others. First time I ever had a root canal it was a general dentist in a small town in Colorado and it took him 3 hours and I had trouble with it later and lost that tooth seven years later. Had it extracted yesterday! My next root canal it took 10 minutes with a specialist in Austin. So we know that quality varies in anything. If you buy a house from me it is going to be better than any other one you can buy. Anyway I never heard of anyone who did not get medical care if they really needed it. I have suspicions about that 47M number. I don't know how accurate it is. However, lets say the 20 M number for illegals is correct. Do you suppose the 47 M without health insurance includes those 20 m illegals? Hmmmmm. Anyway, has anyone noticed how inflation has basically been pretty low since the 90s? Guess what, the rules have changed. With the Global Economy and the internet, it is hard for producers to raise prices since it is so easy to compare prices and get somthing cheaper perhaps made in Taiwan or India or somewhere. Anyway, in the 60s, 70s and 80s, our economy was on a see saw. I like it better now. I think the stock market does too.

[Njaco]

You're right, its all smoke and mirrors. The thing that galls me is that people - the majority - will not research something to get a balanced opinion. Granted, there is alot to digest even if on one subject but its your life and you better understand whats going on. I have "discussions" at work with people who see a snippet somewhere and it becomes gospel. GW, Hillary, Iraq and Afgan. When I chime in with what I believe is a little common sense, they tend to go quiet and reflect. That is what really scares me about elections. Month after month, day after day, here in NJ I read and hear about rants on the politicin and that one takes paybacks, neoptisim, stupid bills in the legislature, yada, yada, yada. But when it comes time to vote its "My vote don't count" or "there is no one to vote for" or "He's ok" and we're right back where we started. I once saw a poll where everyone said politicians are crooks and cheats and liars but 80 or 90% thought "their" represenative was doing a good job.

The economy ebbs and flows. The job market ebbs and flows. GW ebbs and flows. Hell, my mood ebbs and flows. The doomsayers need to shut up and find a real job.

Now I'm not saying that everything that spews from my mouth is correct. I'm fluid. I try in the best possible way to understand a situation. But I can change my view. Except my belief in a strong defense and minimal government intrusion in my law-abiding life. I may not know all there is about one subject but I know alittle about alot. My pre-wife says I'm a fountain of useless information. Oh well.

But this country needs to be active in each and every persons life instead of the lacadasical attitude and 5 second snippets on TV or the net to do whats right.

[renrich]

Amen, Njaco! To reinforce what you just said, I saw a poll the other day among democrats. The majority thought our economy was in bad shape. Guess what the majority of them also said, that they were personally doing fine. Because of the factors you mentioned, we live in a country where "perception is reality" I honestly believe that our world would be much better off if television had not been invented. I know, TV is used for more than the nightly news and sports, et al. Since I grew up mostly before TV, I realise how it has altered our world. If there was only some way to cause every voter in this country to become truly informed!

[Njaco]

Or at least vote! It amazes me that at most 30% of those eligable to vote actually do so. Contrary to the founding fathers, it is a country led by the minority.

[renrich]

Actually, the founding fathers did not believe everyone should vote. One had to be white, male and of a certain age and there may have been other requirements such as property ownership, poll tax or something. This sounds like heresy but if everyone in this country over the age of 21 voted, I am afraid we would be in sad shape, even worse than we are. I wish that were not so. The problem is a country ruled by a plutocracy would be terrible too. In retrospect, perhaps what we have is the best as only people who are at least somewhat engaged and interested, vote. The balance don't care enough to get off their duff and be enfranchised.

[Njaco]

The balance don't care enough to get off their duff

except to get up and get their welfare check...."Life is good"

I responded too quickly. Forgot about the White, male part in the beginning.

Kinda a Catch 22.

[timshatz]

Originally Posted by F-14

america acts like a Insurence policy for many countries especialy ones in the persian gulf if the American withdraw and become isolestionist then the Aeabian penisula will become the Persian peninsula

One of the best posts on the topic so far. The down side of america going isolationist is de facto encouragement to every tin horn dictator on the planet.

Good point F14.

[syscom3]

If other countries feel the same way, then let them spend their money and political capital doing the dirty work.

I say that since the cold war is long over, time to pack up and go home.

In fact, we should nominate the UN to run global security, without any US hardware or manpower.

[pbfoot]

Originally Posted by syscom3

If other countries feel the same way, then let them spend their money and political capital doing the dirty work.

I say that since the cold war is long over, time to pack up and go home.

In fact, we should nominate the UN to run global security, without any US hardware or manpower.

you gotta get out of the house

[freebird]

Originally Posted by renrich

Actually, the founding fathers did not believe everyone should vote. One had to be white, male and of a certain age and there may have been other requirements such as property ownership, poll tax or something. This sounds like heresy but if everyone in this country over the age of 21 voted, I am afraid we would be in sad shape, even worse than we are. I wish that were not so. The problem is a country ruled by a plutocracy would be terrible too. In retrospect, perhaps what we have is the best as only people who are at least somewhat engaged and interested, vote. The balance don't care enough to get off their duff and be enfranchised.

Perhaps voting should not be "multiple choice" but by "essay question" Explain in 150 words why you think this polititian is better than the other one....