Could the IJN have launched a "Third wave" at Pearl Harbour?

ToughOmbre · 02-04-2008, 04:58 PM

Sure the Japanese could have launched a third wave. And they would have paid a price to take out the dry docks, ship repair facilities and oil storage. It would have caused the US Navy more headaches in the short term but the ultimate result would be the same. Japan sealed their fate by attacking PH in the first place. Yammamoto said he would run wild in the Pacific for 6-12 months, after that he could guarantee nothing. The big gamble by the Japanese turned out to be a very bad bet.

TO

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 02-05-2008, 08:07 AM

I dont think they could have (okay yes it could have succeded some what) for these reasons:

a. They simply would not have because they did not know where the Carriers where.

b. The element of surprise was lost.

joy17782 · 02-05-2008, 08:52 AM

Adler is right . Once surprize is not on your side then whats the point. The loses would have been great in trained crews . Look what happen too them at midway , they lost alot of aircrews they could,nt make up . and oil tanks ,well at that time we were the oil produceing capital of the world . uh thats one of the reasons they attacked us, drydocks well it would have ham string us but too what piont the lost of 35 too 40 aircrews that they couldnt replace , no they did the right thing. take what you can and get them the next time .There people on top knew they could never defeat us .

freebird · 02-05-2008, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerAdlerIstGelandet

I dont think they could have (okay yes it could have succeded some what) for these reasons:

a. They simply would not have because they did not know where the Carriers where.

b. The element of surprise was lost.

Adler I prefaced the question with "if they had located the carriers", (either in Pearl or known to be in San Diego). I agree with you that the fact they didn't find them historically was a huge part of Nagumo's decision. They made a big mistake by not having a way for their spies to get the message to Nagumo, and time the strike accordingly.

As for surprise, they certainly would take higher casualties, but they results would have been well worth it i think, even if they had lost 50 or 60 craft. I also said "if they had launched right away", so that the first wave returning at 10 am is turned around and re-launched quickly before the second wave returns at noon. Because they waited until all planes were back, + another couple of hours looking for the carriers they lost the chance.

Besides the commonly cited "oil tanks" I think that sinking the destroyer fleet would also have been a huge blow to the US, they only had about 100 modern destroyers, so losing 29 at Pearl would be tough.

Couple of questions for the experts...

How long would it take a IJN carrier crew to re-arm & refuel 20 bombers & 10 fighters? {on each of 6 carriers}

Does anybody have a breakdown of the 29 Japanese planes lost, how many Zero's, Val's & Kate's?

If they did launch a third wave, could they use the Kate's for level bombing instead of torpedos, & would that reduce the effects of flak?

{They would be attacking Dd & CL ships & installations without armour, unlike the Battleships which were only minimally damaged by bombs due to heavy deck armour}

ToughOmbre · 02-05-2008, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebird

Does anybody have a breakdown of the 29 Japanese planes lost, how many Zero's, Val's & Kate's?

9 Zeroes, 15 Vals and 5 Kates I believe.

TO

Glider · 02-05-2008, 10:15 AM

I must admit that I don't think the losses would automatically have been large.
There was no need for any more torpedo bombers or for low level straffing. By sticking to bombing there was little for the US to defend themselves with. The fighters were almost completely out of the fight, Heavy AA was almost non existant and in 1941 not that efficient, leaving you with Heavy Machine Guns which are of very limited use (if any) against level bombers.

A better use of the IJN aircraft I would suggest, would be to throw everything into a search for the Carriers.

They would be ready for you certainly but would have been heavily outnumbered. I don't know how many aircraft the carriers were carrying at that moment but its unlikely to have been the full war compliment. Also its almost certain that wherever the carriers were they were almost certain to head back to Pearl after the attack and would be coming to you.

DerAdlerIstGelandet · 02-05-2008, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebird

Adler I prefaced the question with "if they had located the carriers", (either in Pearl or known to be in San Diego). I agree with you that the fact they didn't find them historically was a huge part of Nagumo's decision. They made a big mistake by not having a way for their spies to get the message to Nagumo, and time the strike accordingly.

}

Ooops my bad. I somehow missed that.

If they had located the Carriers I believe they could have and should have attacked again.

I do believe they would have taken heavier losses however. Reasons:

a. The base is on alert, there is no more surprise factor.

b. The radar stations in Hawaii would have been more alert.

As I said. I believe in that case they could have pulled off a 3rd wave but it would have sustained heavier losses.

comiso90 · 02-05-2008, 01:57 PM

If they would have hammered the fuel reserves, sub pens and repair facilities,
I dont think we would have been ready for the battle of Coral Sea. Australia would have been cut off and the Solomons would have been much tougher to take back.

.

syscom3 · 02-05-2008, 02:11 PM

Glider, dont under estimate the AA that the US could have thrown up at the Japanese. Remember that many ships were untouched and could throw up a good barage. The IJN level bombers would be flying at medium altitude, straight and level and the planes vulnerable to damage. Dont forget that slight damage to these planes can be fatal damage when trying to return to a carrier.

As for the US fighters. Consider that the third wave would need three or more hours to organize from the moment the decision is made to attack and when they make their attack runs. The US could easily get a few dozen fighters in the air within that time frame and inflict damage or disrupt the Japanese formations. Enough to stop them? No. Draw blood? Yes!

And again, the question is if they had enough bombers (dive and level) to do lasting damage to the port. The answer is no.

Glider · 02-05-2008, 04:18 PM

Its only one view but the HAA on the ships would have been very limited. Ships in harbour are surrounded by cranes, tall buildings ect. The HMG's lack the range to deal with planes at medium height.
Fighters would have been a threat but the IJN should have been ready for them. Its a risk but one that would have been worth taking.

Re the damage that the IJN could have inflicted, I do agree that they couldn't have achieved what they wanted but they should have done what they could.

syscom3 · 02-05-2008, 05:23 PM

The ships in the harbor would have had mostly unrestricted arcs of fire.

Look at a map of the harbor where the ships were moored and compare it to where the shipyard facilities are.

As for fighters..... who knows. remember that the Enterprise airgroup arrived at Pearl in the waning moments of the battle. Imagine what a couple dozen Wildcats could do for defense!

drgondog · 02-05-2008, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebird

Would the japanese have been successful launching a "Third wave"?

If the Japanese had found the US Carriers at Pearl Harbour, should they have risked a third wave?

If I have the data correct, the first wave landed back on the carriers at 10 am, the second wave at 12 noon. The Japanese spent another hour or two searching for the US Carriers, at which point it was decided by Nagumo that the risks of a third wave were too great.

If the US Pacific carriers were all accounted for (either sunk at Pearl or seen at anchor in San Diego), the Japanese could have re-armed the first wave aircraft for another attack and launched right away without losing time searching for the Carriers.

The third wave as advocated by Genda would have targeted the fuel tanks, repair shops, sub base and the cruisers & destroyers at Pearl {5 out of 8 cruisers & 26 of 29 destryers were undamaged following the second wave}

What would have been the result?

First, the IJN could have launched a thrid strike.

Second, If the carriers were in Pearl Harbor and had not damaged the Carriers on first two, they would have, in my opinion believed the risk was worth the postential to take out the carriers.

Last, given the two scenarios above - the attack would have completely focused on the carriers. Only if the carriers had been destroyed and they had assets in the air with bombs, would they have extended to attack POL and or Sub base as targets of opportunity rather than prime directive.

Remember, the Carriers were first priority of first strike and the second strike was more capital ships and mop up of Carriers and only with a. and b. were they going to launch the planned third strike.

Absent known location of Carriers you can imagine the agony thinking about 'going for broke' and putting escort fighters on the 3rd wave - or sending it in alone and risk extremely heavy losses to remaining US airpower but not risk zero CAP to an unexpected attack from the missing carriers?

IMO - Once they determined that the US Carriers were not at Pearl, I think there was zero chance they commit to third strike?

Haztoys · 02-06-2008, 12:21 AM

One thing I've often wondered ...The Japanese really wanted the Carriers...At what point did the carriers leave PH...And how did the Japanese "not" know that the Carriers were gone ...I know they were keeping an eye on PH ... Strange...One peace of the puzzle I've never herd an answer too....

The Basket · 02-06-2008, 01:21 AM

Attacking PH was to knock US out the war. The timing was part of the big Jap push against the Dutch and British in se asia. So they were already commited and so they were going to attack carriers or no carriers.

I agree that they could have totally destroyed everything at PH but it wouldn't have changed the outcome of the war. Just timing.

They were right to quit while winning. If the carriers had been there then that would have been the prize.

Glider · 02-06-2008, 03:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by syscom3

.

As for fighters..... who knows. remember that the Enterprise airgroup arrived at Pearl in the waning moments of the battle. Imagine what a couple dozen Wildcats could do for defense!

Your right, I had forgotten about the Enterprise airgroup. The Zero's and WIldcats would probably have given as good as they got and the losses heavier than I was thinking.

Who knows, it might have even played into the IJN hands. Had they suffered 'normal' losses from the start, they may have ramped up their training program earlier rather than later. Its one of those unknown 'what if' scenario's