Could the IJN have launched a "Third wave" at Pearl Harbour?

[freebird]

Would the japanese have been successful launching a "Third wave"?

If the Japanese had found the US Carriers at Pearl Harbour, should they have risked a third wave?

If I have the data correct, the first wave landed back on the carriers at 10 am, the second wave at 12 noon. The Japanese spent another hour or two searching for the US Carriers, at which point it was decided by Nagumo that the risks of a third wave were too great.

If the US Pacific carriers were all accounted for (either sunk at Pearl or seen at anchor in San Diego), the Japanese could have re-armed the first wave aircraft for another attack and launched right away without losing time searching for the Carriers.

The third wave as advocated by Genda would have targeted the fuel tanks, repair shops, sub base and the cruisers & destroyers at Pearl {5 out of 8 cruisers & 26 of 29 destryers were undamaged following the second wave}

What would have been the result?

[magnocain]

It is my opinion that with heavyer losses, that IJN might of taken out the oil tanks and the repair yards that they so crucially missed.

[FLYBOYJ]

If I remember right the first attacks resulted in a 10% loss of Japanese aircraft. A third wave, if netted the same result would of brought more damage but more losses - as high as 25%. IMO that third wave would of had to produce some commanding results.

[Glider]

I believe that they should have gone for a third wave. The IJN had the advantage and should have made the most of it.

The USA would have been ready but had precious little to be ready with and the lhe losses moderate.

[Soundbreaker Welch?]

I think they should have done it.

[Arsenal VG-33]

I think the Japanese could have succeeded in hitting the remaining vital facilities that were missed during the first 2 raids, but with heavier losses. By the time the 2nd wave arrived, there were already several US aircraft in the air putting up a fight. I think therefore it's safe to assume that a 3rd wave would have encountered perhaps even more airworthy US planes and AA fire.

Also keep in mind that the US Pacific fleet not yet in port had by then been alerted, which was one of the fears of the Japanese admiral in command. There was the distinct possibility that a USN ship, either surface or submarine, or even a US patrol aircraft, could have spotted them and alerted the rest of the fleet.

They could have launched the 3rd wave, but they would be tempting fate if they did by remaining in the area waiting for their planes to return from the raid.

[The Basket]

On the one hand...yes.
They launched an attack and they should have seen it through.

But they would have had heavier losses...and lost the element of surprise.

The war was just beginning and it was not going to be won or lost at Pearl. So they were right to break off and fight another day.

Although in hindsight, the carriers were sunk at Midway so they should have continued the attack. Maybe the motto is that when you're winning...keep at it.

[Konigstiger205]

Well in any surprise attack in case you don't wipe out completely your enemy, sooner or later the surprise element is going to disappear...

[fly boy]

japan could have done a third bombing but that would mean about a hour of reloading and refuling and the US carriers could have found them i think that had they done another strike the war would be longer in the pasific and Eurpoe

[fly boy]

becuase the japanese planed to bomb dry docks and oil plants

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by fly boy

japan could have done a third bombing but that would mean about a hour of reloading and refuling and the US carriers could have found them i think that had they done another strike the war would be longer in the pasific and Eurpoe

The war in the pacific would have ended exactly on time due to the US receiving a fleet carrier every month beginning in middle 1943, and of course, the atomic bomb in 1945.

As for knocking out pearl harbor as a shipyard? Forget it. Not enough aircraft and payload to do the trick. Damage it, nothing else. The US would have repaired everything and restocked the oil farms by spring 1942.

As for losses, losing 20 plus aircrews in the 3rd strike, would bring their one day losses to the equivelant of one whole carrier air group. Not an auspicious way to start the war.

[comiso90]

If the Japanese were able to take out the fuel oil reserves, a third wave would have been worth 50% losses at that stage of the war...
The US would have been hamstrung for months

.

[ccheese]

If the Japanese had launched a third wave, and taken out the fuel farm,
the submarine base with its shops, and a lot of other targets they missed,
their losses would have been 25 - 35 percent. By then the element of
surprise was lost. The US would have recovered, but it would have taken
longer. We may not have been able to save some of the battleships if they
had been plastered again.

Charles

[syscom3]

The US would have found enough tankers to get to Pearl and provide enough bunker and avgas to keep the war machine humming. After all, Hawaii isnt that far from the US.

As for fuel for the battleships? They werent going to sortie anytime soon so its a non issue.

50% losses? That would have a drastic impact on Japans capabilities. Thats almost like losing 1/2 of your carriers.

And remember one thing..... the Japanese did not have enough dive bombers and torpedo bombers (used in a level bomber mode) to hit every important target hard enough to destroy it.

The dive bombers only carried a 500 pound bomb. Hardly enough to cause extreme damage. The level bombers did not bomb individually, but as a group dropping on the "leader". Dropping 5 bombs on a single target would be devestating, but that technique in itself limits the number of targets.

[renrich]

The IJN could have launched a third wave and probably should have. They could have done a lot of damage to the fuel storage tanks and some repair facilities and probably to a few more ships. The US carriers were too far away to have made successful attacks on Nagumo even if they could have located them. However, Nagumo's losses to triple A and fighters would have been heavy. I can't recall the exact numbers but his losses during the second wave attack were heavier than during the first wave and the Japanese pilots were quoted as saying they were surprised at how fast the defenses at PH reacted. With heavier air crew losses Nagumos's force would not have been as effective later. That was the problem the Japanese faced during the whole war. Finite numbers of men and materiel versus practically an enemy with unlimited resources. A clear case of letting the alligator mouth overload the aspirin ass. Yammamoto tried to tell his superiors that.