What air victory was more important?

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by Soundbreaker Welch?

It must have been a real sadness to the Japanese when they lost their two Yamato Class Battleships. But by then they were losing the war.

They then knew how the US felt about their BB's being sunk at Pearl, and the RN with the PoW and Repluse off of Malaya.

[parsifal]

Guys

IMHO, the importance of a battle should be judged less on the material losses (very WWI type thinking BTW) and more on the effect on enemy in terms of how he views things.

Both Midway and Guadacanal were important in material terms, but neither battle led to the japanese breaking out the surrender flags.Both battles contributed to that change in mindset, but it is very difficult to determine which had the greater impact in that regard

But battles also affect the other side, in this case the US. IMO Midway was the greater battle in terms of the way it boosted US Morale. Psychologically (and of course materially), the US would not have been able to attempt Guadacanal as soon as they did, except if they had won at Midway.

Morale and Psychology are more important than people think, including the US. Just look at what is happening to US National Morale as a result of Iraq. I think the US is winning, but it cannot see it.

[syscom3]

Guadalcanal had a bigger impact on the Pacific War than Midway.

[Hunter368]

Of course this is all just opinions.......but I believe Midway was more important.

[parsifal]

well thanks for the convincing and thoughtful counterarguments fellas. "I said it, so it must be true!"

Come on you can do better than that, surely

[drgondog]

Originally Posted by syscom3

Guadalcanal had a bigger impact on the Pacific War than Midway.

You suppose the Japanese lose Guadalcanal (or New Guinea) before 1944 if they win Midway?

[drgondog]

[quote=parsifal;343555]Guys

IMHO, the importance of a battle should be judged less on the material losses (very WWI type thinking BTW) and more on the effect on enemy in terms of how he views things.

Both Midway and Guadacanal were important in material terms, but neither battle led to the japanese breaking out the surrender flags.Both battles contributed to that change in mindset, but it is very difficult to determine which had the greater impact in that regard

But battles also affect the other side, in this case the US. IMO Midway was the greater battle in terms of the way it boosted US Morale. Psychologically (and of course materially), the US would not have been able to attempt Guadacanal as soon as they did, except if they had won at Midway.

[quote]

Morale notwithstanding, where do we finally put a stop to Japanese advances if the Midway Battle resulted in exact reversal of carrier losses? Why would the Japanes lose Guadalcanal or New Guinea if US core Carrier Fleet goes away in mid 1942? Are US forces able to defeat Japanese forces in Hawaii?

What does a necesaary shift of all USN priorities to attempt to defend Hawaii do for North Atlantic battles and North Africa invasion.

Conversely, How does a Guadalcanal win by US affect global strategic position if Midway is lost? How does the US even think about attacking Guadalcanal if the carrier fleet is lost - look at the USN mindset as it was when they weighed anchor and left the jatheads holding the bag... and that was AFTER winning at Midway.

I see Guadalcanal as huge for morale but Midway as monstrous for strategic capability reversal against Japan.

[syscom3]

The Guadalcanal campaign is what broke the back of the IJN for both warships and aircrews.

After Midway, the Japanese were still on the offensive, and the carrier numbers still equal between the two combatants.

And untill the Avengers were deployed in numbers throughout the fleet, the US was without any torpedo bomber.

[Marcel]

But Japan was lacking experienced ground crew for their carriers after Midway. This meant that for the first time in the war, the US had the advantage in Naval battles. And the Japanese Navy first had to be defeated in order to battle all the way up to Japan.

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by Marcel

But Japan was lacking experienced ground crew for their carriers after Midway. This meant that for the first time in the war, the US had the advantage in Naval battles. And the Japanese Navy first had to be defeated in order to battle all the way up to Japan.

Incorrect. The IJN still had plenty of ground (deck?) crews after the battle. But their margin to absorb losses was lessened.

Aircrew losses = 110 (not all pilots)
Mechanics = 721

Those were not prohibitive losses.

[Marcel]

My bad, I read this in the book Midway by Philip D Grove. H gives a number of over 2000 highly trained support personal, maintenance staff and engineers perised during tha battle. The aircrew was indeed replaced, but never by fliers of the same quality (again according mr. Grove).

[drgondog]

Originally Posted by syscom3

The Guadalcanal campaign is what broke the back of the IJN for both warships and aircrews.

Guadalcanal is a null issue if Japs win Midway

After Midway, the Japanese were still on the offensive, and the carrier numbers still equal between the two combatants.

If Japs win Midway, Japs stay on offensive for next 15 months and US has zero carriers until we divert everything West. Midway Island falls and becomes IJN jump off base for Hawaii. Guadalcanal is consiloidated, New Guinea goes down, Australia is in peril.

And untill the Avengers were deployed in numbers throughout the fleet, the US was without any torpedo bomber.

The USN didn't need Torps at Midway. All four Jap carriers was killed by SBD's. The one existing Avenger force was wiped out, but thankfully they pulled the Zero CAP to the deck to allow the SBDs the first three carriers.

Additionally, we still had major issues with our torps until mid 1943. TBF's were no factor at either Midway or Guadalcanal as far as killing cariers, why even bring that up?

[parsifal]

Hi Guys

Interesting argument and counterargument. Some basic facts, as i see them.

In terms of materiel lost, Guadacanal is far more important than Midway, yet Guadacanal cannot happen unless a Midway victory is achieved. This is both for materiel reasons and for psychological reasons, which i maintain the opinion, is actually as important as the materiel stuff you guys want to concentrate on.

An interesting what if is what might have happened if Midway had not been won so convincingly. Say for example, the IJN had lost two carriers, and the USN three. Would this have affected the subsequent events. IMO yes, In the real history, the solomons battles actually saw the weakened IJN claw their way back in terms of carriers lost. The US , from memory lost the Hornet, the Wasp, Sareatoga was heavily damaged, and Enterprise was moderately so. The IJN lost Ryujo, with Shokaku and Zuiho moderately damaged. The IJN received as reinforcement the Hiyo and the Junyo. So, I am going to go out on limb and say obviously the IJN staged somewhat of a recovery in terms the hulls comparison ()not so in terms of the aircrew situation....the last of the pre-war veterans, on which so much of the japanese capability depended, were lost at Santa Cruz).

Now, if the USN was even two carriers down from the start, and the IJN two carriers up, a Guadacanal style counterattack was out of the question....A non-defeat at midway give the IJN the priceless advantage of having a forward base, from which they can observe the movements and activities at Pearl (the primary reason for the operation in the forst place). This, of itself severely curtails the operations of the US in the South pacific (Pearl was still the major base of operation and not being able to use it properly is a major problem for them. When the situation was reversed in 1944, the loss of Truk had a similar effect on the IJN).

With less US opposition, and greater remaining IJN capability, and no Watchtower (guadacanal), IJN can return to Mo (II) (Pt Moresby). Likley to win after a protracted battle. Then where????

The operational plans for the IJN was the capture of Fiji and New caledonia, but these will severely stretch IJN shipping. Will take time to concentrate the necessary forces, Meanwhile US has concentrated what forces it can in these areas, so the attritonal battle shifts from Guadacanal, to Fiji/New Caledonia. Beyond that point it gets too difficult to predict, but I would hazard a guess and say that history corrects itself, and the IJN ends up losing its experienced aircrew, has a couple more carriers, and probably loses a greater amount of shipping in the process. But this last bit is conjecture and highly speculative.

[syscom3]

Originally Posted by Marcel

My bad, I read this in the book Midway by Philip D Grove. H gives a number of over 2000 highly trained support personal, maintenance staff and engineers perised during tha battle. The aircrew was indeed replaced, but never by fliers of the same quality (again according mr. Grove).

Read the book "Shattered Sword" that used Japanese documents from the battle to see what really happened.

We are talking about the "here and now" of what actually transpired.

The Japanese lost 4 carriers, but not as many air and deck crews that we have been led to believe.

Japan lost far more heavily in the Guadalcanal campaign when it came to aircrews lost. Thats what did them in. Their carriers were eventually repaired, but the quality of the pilots was definetly impacted.

BTW, has anyone given thought of the actual Japanese invasion of Midway? The IJN marines would have been slaughtered and it would have been a debacle that would put Galipoli to shame.

[drgondog]

Originally Posted by syscom3

Read the book "Shattered Sword" that used Japanese documents from the battle to see what really happened.

We are talking about the "here and now" of what actually transpired.

The Japanese lost 4 carriers, but not as many air and deck crews that we have been led to believe.

What if we had lost 3 carriers and the IJN none

Japan lost far more heavily in the Guadalcanal campaign when it came to aircrews lost. Thats what did them in. Their carriers were eventually repaired, but the quality of the pilots was definetly impacted.

Aircrews are replaced faster than carriers. How did IJN trepair the ones (carriers) that went to bottom of pacific? Which ones were repaired? how long did Soryu, Hiryu Akagii take to get back on line? We must have missed that event

BTW, has anyone given thought of the actual Japanese invasion of Midway? The IJN marines would have been slaughtered and it would have been a debacle that would put Galipoli to shame.

LOL - how many Marines versus Turks in your comparison? I love the USMC but you may be stretching an anology a wee bit? What defensive features did Midway have that remotely approached Saipan for example? Absent pacific fleet carrriers how does USMC defeat IJN?

Syscom - how does Guadalcanal happen if US carriers go to the bottom in June 1942? You haven't gotten around to that explanation yet.