Drone Pilot Trainees Now the Majority

[Butters]

Are the new drone operaters to be mainly enlisted or officers? I know that I'd be pretty PO'ed if I were an Academy grad being pushed into drone school...

It seems to me that the trend towards a UCAV-heavy air force is inevitable. The sheer cost of 5th gen a/c (Officials are saying that the first 500 F-35's are gonna cost $200 million a pop. Who knows how much it will actually be...) and the continuing advances in sensor and guidance technology is going to make a it very difficult to justify large traditional air forces, esp with no truly formidable adversaries on the immediate horizon.

JL

[FLYBOYJ]

The US Army and Navy has enlisted UAV pilots, the USAF has some enlisted pilots.

[FLYBOYJ]

Originally Posted by Butters

Are the new drone operaters to be mainly enlisted or officers? I know that I'd be pretty PO'ed if I were an Academy grad being pushed into drone school...

It seems to me that the trend towards a UCAV-heavy air force is inevitable. The sheer cost of 5th gen a/c (Officials are saying that the first 500 F-35's are gonna cost $200 million a pop. Who knows how much it will actually be...) and the continuing advances in sensor and guidance technology is going to make a it very difficult to justify large traditional air forces, esp with no truly formidable adversaries on the immediate horizon.

JL

I disagree to a point.

There is no doubt that UAVs UCAVs are the wave of the future, but there will continue to be a manned mission for a number of reasons (we've had this discussion before). In the long run the cost justification will be operational longevity, especially if there are no formidable adversaries. If these aircraft last as long as the B-52 (and they may) the end means will justify the cost.

[Butters]

I agree that manned combat a/c are going to be absolutely necessary for the forseeable future. What should be a concern is the fact that the F-22/F-35 are both horrendously expensive, and in the case of the Raptor at least, very maintenance intensive. The F-35 doesn't impress me as having much bang for the buck, given its limited stealth, small payload, less than impressive range, and suspect A/A capabilities. I would be far from surprised if many of the non-US customers decide that the escalating costs are just too much, and start shopping around elsewhere. That's not gonna help the unit costs for the remaining customers. And whether or not those expensive-to-operate* jets will last for 50 yrs is not going to be the main concern for those who will have to pay for them NOW.

* see: F-22 Raptor plagued by stealth maintenance woes (2/20/09) -- www.GovernmentExecutive.com

JL

[FLYBOYJ]

Originally Posted by Butters

I agree that manned combat a/c are going to be absolutely necessary for the forseeable future. What should be a concern is the fact that the F-22/F-35 are both horrendously expensive, and in the case of the Raptor at least, very maintenance intensive. The F-35 doesn't impress me as having much bang for the buck, given its limited stealth, small payload, less than impressive range, and suspect A/A capabilities. I would be far from surprised if many of the non-US customers decide that the escalating costs are just too much, and start shopping around elsewhere. That's not gonna help the unit costs for the remaining customers. And whether or not those expensive-to-operate* jets will last for 50 yrs is not going to be the main concern for those who will have to pay for them NOW.

* see: F-22 Raptor plagued by stealth maintenance woes (2/20/09) -- www.GovernmentExecutive.com

JL

A few comments there...

That article as usual from US "watchdog" groups is, well putting it lightly, a bunch of BS. Maintenance woes? When DS 1 went down, look at the MC rate of the F-117A, and that was a much harder aircraft to maintain. What is not mentioned is a 10% chenge in MC rate could mean between 3 and 5 aircraft down depending how you do the math. One commentator cites a 60% MC rate which is about what the aircraft should be at this time in its career.

As far as the costs - again its going to depend what the customer orders. The VSTOL version will certainly cost more. As far as the payload - the capability to deliver smaller ordnance that will do more damage is part of the concept.

I know people who designed the X-35 and are currently on this program. There is a lot not being advertised about this aircraft and in the end I feel its detractors will eventually be silenced and with that potential customers will pay the price for this aircraft, especially if they are included in any production off-set deals. Its funny, I remember hearing the same arguments against the F-15 and F-16 in the mid 70s and of course cost was always mentioned.

[drgondog]

Originally Posted by FLYBOYJ

Many of the grads from the academy see a drone slot as a career ender before it begins.

I talked to several at DM. They ALL (top grads) selected A-10 and were rewarded with UAV