New OEF rotation...

[Bluehawk]

The coming front...

Link:
DoD announces new Afghanistan rotation - Marine Corps News, news from Iraq - Marine Corps Times
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"Up to 2,000 Marines will deploy to Afghanistan in November to replace the 3,400 leathernecks scheduled to return home in the coming months, the Defense Department announced Monday.

The Marine Air-Ground Task Force will comprise units from across the Corps, officials said. Camp Lejeune’s 3rd Battalion, 8th Marines, will form the MAGTF’s ground element, according to Maj. David Nevers, a spokesman for the Corps. Led by Lt. Col. D.L. Odom, 3/8 recently completed predeployment training at the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center at Twentynine Palms, Calif.



It’s not immediately clear which units will form the headquarters, logistics and aviation sections of the ad-hoc unit, Nevers said.

Approximately 3,700 soldiers from the Army’s 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, are scheduled to join the MAGTF in January, according to the Pentagon. Both units were previously scheduled to deploy to Iraq.

The 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit along with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines are currently serving in Afghanistan. The 24th MEU is fighting near the Afghan-Pakistan border while 2/7 is engaged in a mission to train Afghan security forces. It’s unclear if 3/8 will assume either of those roles or if it will take on a new mission, Nevers said.

And while the deployment ensures a continued Marine presence in volatile southern Afghanistan, the smaller force means fewer Marines on the ground. Historically, fighting in Afghanistan is fiercest in the spring and summer. Indigenous forces tend to pull back during the harsh Afghan winters.

The 2/7 commander, Lt. Col. Richard Hall, acknowledged last month in a discussion with military bloggers that his unit has suffered significant casualties in Afghanistan.

The move to send 3/8 to Afghanistan comes a few weeks after Commandant Gen. James Conway made his latest entreaty to shift the Corps’ focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. He has been unabashed for more than year in calling for Marines to take on the Afghanistan mission."

[Bluehawk]

Graphic link see:
Pakistan's Troubled Tribal Belt - Council on Foreign Relations

[mkloby]

Ooh-Rah!

[Matt308]

Read this morning that Pakistan has stated their military will fire upon US forces that do not recieve prior permission for activities inside Pakistani borders.

I have always suspected that Pakistan has been secretely (or not so secretely) supporting the Taliban in their border region. And I don't believe for a minute that every firing over the Pakistani border results in "innocent" civilian deaths. As Bush said, you harbour terrorists within your border, you will be treated as the enemy.

Never forget. Never forget.

[Freefalling]

Pakistan has problems. The current president never met a bribe he couldn't refuse and their economy is in the toilet. Even the moderates in the country are vocal in their opposition to us crossing into their country or launching a Hellfire or two into a village at night. So, he has to do some posturing to keep the moderates and the hardliners happy.

OUR problem is that the overwhelming majority of supplies into Afghanistan comes through the port of Karachi and travels overland through Pakistan. Without those supplies this war grinds to a halt with a quickness. So, we need Pakistan's support. Period.

The Pakistani ISI (their CIA) supported the Taliban in the 90's so it isn't unreasonable to think they support them to this day. The ISI bragged about their officers riding on Taliban tanks into Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif and acting as advisors.

But any Pakistani forces that fire on our guys will find themselves in a pine box if they can find enough pieces to warrant a box.

For anyone interested I highly recommend Ghost Wars by Steven Coll.

[Matt308]

Good post Freefalling.

[Freefalling]

Thank you, Matt. With 2+ years over here I'd better be able to say something about this place.

[evangilder]

Part of the problem with that region of Pakistan is the "lawless" regions that answer to no one but themselves. There are parts of that region that even the Pakistani Army won't enter. But I would venture to guess that the ISI is operating there.

[Bluehawk]

Thank you, Matt. With 2+ years over here I'd better be able to say something about this place.

Where... is Bin Laden - best guess.

[Freefalling]

evan: Yes, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are bad places to be. The Pakistani army tries to go in there but gets chopped up. Either the folks in the FATA are the most efficient infantry EVER or the Pakistani army sucks. The Durand Line is causing some of this, splitting the Pashtuns and the ISI has supported the Pashtuns going back to the Soviet invasion in 1979.

Bluehawk: Outside of my area, I'm just a commo guy. A retired SF soldier turned CIA guy, Billy Waugh, tracked bin Laden in the Sudan I believe around '96 or so; he thinks bin Laden is dead. I think the plethora of tapes says otherwise unless OBL has the same marketing team that handles Elvis and Tupac. OBL is probably in the FATA. al Q has decentralized even more than before 9/11 so he could be anywhere and it wouldn't impact their operations much. My money would be on the FATA though.

[Bluehawk]

Bluehawk: Outside of my area, I'm just a commo guy. A retired SF soldier turned CIA guy, Billy Waugh, tracked bin Laden in the Sudan I believe around '96 or so; he thinks bin Laden is dead. I think the plethora of tapes says otherwise unless OBL has the same marketing team that handles Elvis and Tupac. OBL is probably in the FATA. al Q has decentralized even more than before 9/11 so he could be anywhere and it wouldn't impact their operations much. My money would be on the FATA though.

I've had this hunch, all along, that we KNOW exactly where he is... and, as long as he is where we know him to be, then he cannot keep himself from leading from the rear. We package every twitch he makes.

Eh?

[freebird]

Pakistan has problems. The current president never met a bribe he couldn't refuse and their economy is in the toilet. Even the moderates in the country are vocal in their opposition to us crossing into their country or launching a Hellfire or two into a village at night. So, he has to do some posturing to keep the moderates and the hardliners happy.

OUR problem is that the overwhelming majority of supplies into Afghanistan comes through the port of Karachi and travels overland through Pakistan. Without those supplies this war grinds to a halt with a quickness. So, we need Pakistan's support. Period.

The Pakistani ISI (their CIA) supported the Taliban in the 90's so it isn't unreasonable to think they support them to this day. The ISI bragged about their officers riding on Taliban tanks into Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif and acting as advisors.

But any Pakistani forces that fire on our guys will find themselves in a pine box if they can find enough pieces to warrant a box.

For anyone interested I highly recommend Ghost Wars by Steven Coll.

I just don't get why the US would cause more problems there by DECLARING that they will ignore Pakistan's sovereignty?

If the US just keeps silent and goes in, the new President would probably pretend that he OK'd it anyways, rather than admit that he can't tell the US what to do.


I don't get it, why is the US pointing out to the Taliban that Pakistan's President is not in control?

[Freefalling]

For the reasons I stated earlier. If we go into Pakistan their president will have to respond, the other factions in their government would force him to. He can't stomp his feet and put us in Time Out and tell us "No" yet again, he has to do something. The easiest something is to cut off our supplies. Pakistan has us over a barrel and they know it, but they also don't want to lose all of the money we pump into their economy AND the money we provide for their national defense. I think this year we upgraded her fleet of F-16's with new avionics.

The Taliban knows the Pakistani president isn't in control of his own country, they exploit it. The ISI is most likely feeding the TB info about us, so why would the ISI suddenly have a conscience and not rat out their own government?

It is a political tightrope that has to be walked. That doesn't make it right, that's just the way it is.

I just don't get why the US would cause more problems there by DECLARING that they will ignore Pakistan's sovereignty?

If the US just keeps silent and goes in, the new President would probably pretend that he OK'd it anyways, rather than admit that he can't tell the US what to do.


I don't get it, why is the US pointing out to the Taliban that Pakistan's President is not in control?

[freebird]

For the reasons I stated earlier. If we go into Pakistan their president will have to respond, the other factions in their government would force him to. He can't stomp his feet and put us in Time Out and tell us "No" yet again, he has to do something.
The Taliban knows the Pakistani president isn't in control of his own country, they exploit it.

It is a political tightrope that has to be walked. That doesn't make it right, that's just the way it is.

Sorry, I'm still not getting the logic in this, it's a lose/lose situation.

The Previous President couldn't do very much as HE WAS caught in the middle, he needed the support of those elements aligned or sympathetic to the Taliban.

However the new President is NOT friends with the Taliban or the FATA gangs. If the US President informs him that the US is going in on "hot" intelligence, he should just make an announcement of a new "joint" US & Pak offensive to root out the FATA "terrorists".

By making him look weak & powerless in his own house it will just ramp up the instability, that his enemies will exploit.

Sorry, but it's madness to declare that you will violate another country's sovereignty, as this excuse can now be used by Russia in Georgia or by any number of odious regimes.

The government's control in Pakistan is fragile, it wouldn't take much to provoke chaos or another coup etc.

[Matt308]

So then the alternative is what? Let the Taliban run free and unfettered? I can't fathom that logic either.