Japan and the Soviet Union

[imalko]

Well Soren, its odd that people don't realize just how close the USSR was to defeat even without the help of the Japanese... And its also odd how people disregard Soviet countermeasures taken during Barbarossa and blame German failure solely on Hitler's poor decisions and bad weather.

Let me remind you that Stalin held large and well equipped and trained forces in the far East for most of 1941 to be able to counter possible Japanese attack and these forces were used at Moscow front only after he received reliable intelligence that Japanese are not going to attack. These forces in my opinion were more that enough to fight off any Japanese attack.

Punny Soviet tanks? T-34? This superb tank appeared in 1941 in ever increasing numbers. And even those earlier "punny" Soviet tanks were better then anything Japanese had and kick their ass at Battle of Khalkhyn Gol in 1939. That is why Japanese never dared to attack USSR again.

Which tank-busting planes Japanese had exactly? I never heard of any. Granted that Zero was probably better fighter than anything Soviets had in 1941, but question remains how many of these plane were at disposal at that time. Anyway I was always under impression that Japanese used only their "less capable" planes in China and mainland Asia, like Ki-27 and Ki-43. Japanese bomber had long range but small payload. Were they capable to attack Ural industrial ares from Far East? I don't think so.

My point is that Japanese attack would helped Germans but wouldn't solved anything. Decisive battles would be fought on Soviet-German front. Even without intervention of Soviet "Far East" divisions I don't think that Germans were capable to take Moscow in November 1941 (after all what happened in true time line). And question remains would even fall of Moscow in November 1941 meant the decisive victory for Third Reich?

With US out of the war and Japanese attack on USSR the war would last maybe longer but probably would have ended with defeat of Axis powers. More so if Japanese attack had occured in 1942 and not in 1941.(Which was Renrich's original premise I believe).

[Soren]

Couldn't disagree more imalko.

The Soviet Union wouldn't have lasted 6 months in a combined attack by Germany & Japan. The Soviets had reserves yes, but they were essential in the fight against the Germans and they could under no conditions be left out.

As for tank busting, the Ki-46 could've done a fine job at that. And seeing that the Japanese weren't going to attack the US they would have all their Zeros focused against the Soviets, and that would've meant the total and utter destruction of the VVS. As for the tanks, as already mentioned the T-34 was in the west not the east, and each and every single one was needed to fight the Germans alone. None were available to go to the east, only the puny T-26 and the like were ready in the east.

Had the US not stepped in during WW2 then the USSR would've lost against the Germans, even without the help of the Japanese. The Germans poured a collosal amount of material and manpower to the west in the war against the western allies. Without anyone to fight in the west the Germans would've steamrolled straight through the Soviet Union, only the occasional and unnecessary city fights Hitler loved so much would stall the advance from time to time.

[Colin1]

With no US in the war
the Germans could have sustained their hold on the oilfields and the heavy-industrial and arable territories in the Ukraine. This was the tipping point for the Germans in the real time-line, Stalingrad was simply where everything started to tangibly unravel; German commanders in this what-if would not have faced the decision of 'press on eastwards OR press south and secure the oilfields - but not both'.
Couple the sustained pressure on Russia's western front with an organised, numerous and capable military in the east. Japan doesn't have to beat the Soviets, they simply have to contain them (there's only so far east they can now push their war manufacture) and tie up sizeable portions of their ground and air forces with fanatical infantry and aircraft that like nothing better than to dogfight at low level plus bombers with a very respectable range.
With the Kriegsmarine securing Baltic resupply lines and the IJN ruling the Indian Ocean, I still can't see a way out for the Soviet Union.

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Originally Posted by Soren

Michael,

Remember how close the Germans were at winning eventhough they entered Stalingrad. They had 90% of the city at one point, and Stalin was at his knees ready to beg for peace.

When was Stalin on his knees begging for peace? I don't remember reading that anywhere. In fact Stalin gave orders that no Russian soldiers were to retreat. Seriously, when was Stalin on his knees begging?

While I agree that Germany could have defeated Russia, Stalin was not begging for peace. Not at Stalingrad or at any other time.

[imalko]

Originally Posted by Soren

The Soviets had reserves yes, but they were essential in the fight against the Germans and they could under no conditions be left out.

This reserves (Siberian and Far East divisions) were deployed against the Wehrmacht only in December 1941 at Moscow. And this happened only after Stalin recieved positive and reliable inteligence that Japanese will not attack. Up until December 1941 this Soviet reserves were unengaged.

Originally Posted by Soren

...None (T-34) were available to go to the east, only the puny T-26 and the like were ready in the east.

Possible regarding the T-34 in the east but even those "punny" T-26 were better that anything Japanese had.

Originally Posted by Soren

Had the US not stepped in during WW2 then the USSR would've lost against the Germans, even without the help of the Japanese. The Germans poured a collosal amount of material and manpower to the west in the war against the western allies. Without anyone to fight in the west the Germans would've steamrolled straight through the Soviet Union, only the occasional and unnecessary city fights Hitler loved so much would stall the advance from time to time.

Disagree. US stepping the war was important and crucial for final overall outcome of the war but this didn't saved the Russians from defeat in 1941. Russians effectively won the war at the gates of Moscow in December 1941 and they did it almost on their own.
One more point - in 1941 the Germans effectively didn't have anyone to fight in the west.

[michaelmaltby]

Soren, you write: "Stalin was at his knees ready to beg for peace". What source does that come from? Pure fantasy. There was no loss of nerve by Stalin at Stalingrad. There was a loss of nerve in the early days after June 21, 1941 when (according to Krushev) Stalin said that Hitler was going to "beat our brains in" and disappeared for a couple of days. But when he returned it was for the duration.

The US may not be in the fighting - in your scenario - but rest assured that American industrialists are heavily into the war and if Japan and Germany don't want to face America they are "respecting" American neutrality (much the way Sweden's was respected despite the iron ore being supplied to Germany).

Soren - in your scenario has Britain fallen to Germany? Has Australia fallen to Japan? Has Egypt and North Africa fallen to Germany?

I ask these questions because I reject the idea of German invinsibility. By 1941 (before Moscow) it had been demonstrated that both Germany and Japan could be defeated. Germany couldn't gain air superiority against an equal - only inferiors. And Japan could be whipped by the Soviets.

Soren - lots of enthusiasm but - I'm afraid your coalition has leadership problems and is dillusional. Next you will claim that Napoleon almost conquered Russia in 1812.

MM

[Butters]

The idea that the IJA would be able to field a 3 million man force against the USSR is preposterous. Where would they get these men, and the logistical capability to supply them in the vast space of the USSR? They still had to control and garrison Manchuko and occupied China. They still needed to garrison and hold the European colonies that were the source of their oil (You can't fuel a war machine with the oilfields you MIGHT capture). And they still needed to maintain a sizeable reserve in the event that the US entered the war.

As for the IJN and the mighty Zero, they also still needed to man their fleets and island bases. And their pilot manpower was not only quite small, but their training system prevented them from turning out large numbers of qualified combat pilots. It would have been an IJAAF fighting the Soviet AF, not the IJN. Furthermore, Japan lacked the industrial capability to churn out the necessary long-range bombers and transports necessary to inflict serious damge on the Russian a/c factories.

The Russians could always retreat, drawing the IJA further and further away from their supplies. So even if they could not crush them quickly, as Zhukov had, they would have squeezed the life out of them in the interior.

The Russians were not disunited Chinese.

[JoeB]

The Japanese seriously considered attacking the USSR instead of the Western Allies, in 1941. This was the IJA's preferred plan. The US/British/Dutch oil embargo of July 1941 tipped the scales toward attacking them.

The Nomonhan War is not a good yardstick for measuring the possibilities of Japan v USSR for a couple ofl reasons. First the IJA contingent in Manchuria was enlarged greatly from 1939 to 1941, whereas the best Soviet forces were drawn west. The Kwantung Army outnumbered Soviet Far East forces by 1941, compared to heavy numerical inferiority (even besides stuff like tanks) in the latter stages of the Nomonhan campaign. Second, Nomonhan was fought on treeless grasslands on the western border of Manchuria, it was a border dispute between Japan's puppet state Manchukuo and Soviet satellite Mongolia. An all out attack on the USSR would have focused initially on the eastern side of Manchuria, to capture Soviet Maritime Province. That would have been over mainly forested terrain, where Soviet qualitative superiority in armor would have been less important.

So Japan's forces in Manchuria were not 'no hopers' v the Soviets in 1941. The issue would have been what could have been achieved *beyond* cutting off (the railway to) and conquering the Soviet Maritime Province, which the Japanese could probably have achieved. After that though, the Soviet Union looked like an island in the East and bigger island in the West with thin causeway of the Trans-Siberian Railway connecting the two, no complete roads connect the two, even today. In 1904-1905 the Japanese won every battle in Manchuria, but didn't have the resources, financial as well as manpower, to think about pushing west along the railway all the way to European Russia. The only big difference in 1941 would be the possibility of the USSR collapsing from the morale strain of another enemy at its back, already under attack by Germany. If you really think the Germans never came close to defeating the Soviets, then a Japanese attack wouldn't have gained anything in the long run. If you think the Germans might have come close (to crushing Soviet *morale*) then a Japanese attack might have pushed them over the edge. It really depends a lot on what impact it has on the Russo-German conflict, especially morale impact. And the Japanese plans were not coordinated diplomatically with the Germans. They also would have been purely speculating as to what the Germans were willing to give them if the joint war resulted in Soviet defeat.

So possibly fruitful but very risky. Then again, attacking the Western Allies was very risky too, as is obvious in hindsight.

Joe

[Colin1]

Originally Posted by Butters

It would have been an IJAAF fighting the Soviet AF, not the IJN.

Furthermore, Japan lacked the industrial capability to churn out the necessary long-range bombers and transports necessary to inflict serious damge on the Russian a/c factories

What Soviet Airforce would this have been? The first few days of Barbarossa saw the Soviets being dealt an absolute hay-maker, most of their aircraft being caught on the ground.
With no US involvement, who's supplying them with Lend-Lease aircraft? I doubt the UK would be too willing to let go of much with no US industrial powerhouse behind them and assuming the P-39s were forwarded on according to the real time-line, I seriously doubt it would be sufficient to stem the tide.
The Soviets were hurting for aircraft in the first six months, with nothing to replace their hideous losses, the Germans could fully exploit their mastery of Soviet airspace, ground-attack, strategic bombing, reconnaissance and anti-shipping - near totally unopposed; the Soviets would be paralysed.

Moving assets from east to west and the vast terrain poses the same problems for the Soviets as it does for the invaders, they've still got to get it from A to B, with Axis aircraft marauding more or less at will, good luck with that.

What they do manage to bring west, thins out what the Japanese have to deal with.

As for Japan's lack of long-range bombers, I think this could have and would have been resolved by two allies working to the same, direct end; the Germans would have loaned aircraft and even if they hadn't it's conceivable that the flat expanses present in Manchuria would have provided a succession of rudimentary airstrip-hops into range of Soviet manufacture.

[imalko]

Originally Posted by Colin1

...The first few days of Barbarossa saw the Soviets being dealt an absolute hay-maker, most of their aircraft being caught on the ground.

True, but these were mainly obsolete types useless against Luftwaffe anyway. Aircraft were destroyed on the ground but pilot survived to fight another day flying in new modern types.

Originally Posted by Colin1

With no US involvement, who's supplying them with Lend-Lease aircraft?

And Soviets didn't have aircraft of their own? In period 1939-1945 Soviet war industry produced total number of 149.500 aircraft of all types while in period 1941-1945 Western Allies delivered to the USSR total number of 17.448 of all types.

Originally Posted by Colin1

...the Germans could fully exploit their mastery of Soviet airspace, ground-attack, strategic bombing, reconnaissance and anti-shipping - near totally unopposed; the Soviets would be paralysed.

Germans did enjoyed full mastery of Soviet airspace for a while in 1941 and they exploit it to best of their abilities and yet Soviets were not paralyzed, but furthermore managed to relocate entire industries from western areas to the Urals.

Originally Posted by Colin1

Moving assets from east to west and the vast terrain poses the same problems for the Soviets as it does for the invaders, they've still got to get it from A to B, with Axis aircraft marauding more or less at will, good luck with that.

Seriously doubt that Axis bombers had sufficient range for "marauding at will" the Trans-Siberian Railway, the main link between east and west of the USSR.

[Glider]

Originally Posted by Soren

Sorry Glider but you are terribly mistaken.

The IJN would be attacking just as-well as the IJA, and the Zeros would've swepped any resistance from the VVS aside with ease. There's also no doubt that a lot of Zeros would simply be given duty with the army airforce.

I do not believe that Zero's would have been made available. The IJN and IJAF didn't co-operate on anything, they didn't even share the same rifles, machine guns or 20mm cannons. Why on earth would they share aircraft, it would be a serious loss of face to the Air Force and nothing would allow that. There is also the point that in the Spring of 1942 not all IJN units had been equipped with the Zero and I am confident that the IJN would put them first.

The Japanese army also would not have to go through all of the USSR to have an effect. They simply needed to tie up the Soviets on a second front to take off pressure from the German's back. And seeing that the Soviets were already pushed to the limit by the Germans and could've been defeated by them alone had it not been for some stupid mistakes made by the German high command, then if the Japanese attacked in force in the east it would've quickly been all over for the Soviets.

If the Japanese are not applying pressure then they are not a threat. If they are applying pressure they are wide open.

Also please recognize that the reason that the Germans & Japanese didn't share more technology in WW2 than they did was simply because of the fact that they didn't enter any land based operations together, heck not even any aerial ones. Had that happened the Germans would without a doubt have handed over a lot of technology to the Japanese. They did afterall ship information a very long way over regarding jet technology.

This is a major assumption with very little to back it up. The only technology that I can think off that was used by the Japanese was the DB601 which the Japanese didn't do well with and were better sticking to what they knew Radials, and the 20mm MG151 which was used on some versions of the Ki61. The Jet information was much too little, much too late and not used by the Japanese and a similar statement goes with the Me163.

In your replies you have not commented on the basic weakness of the structure of the Japanese Army units, the equipment they were issued with or the lack of transport. With these problems they stand no chance.

[renrich]

Wow, am I glad I started this discussion. Two factors to consider are: when the Japanese attack the British and Dutch, can FDR get enough support in Congress and among the American people to declare war on Japan and subsequently Germany? I don't think an issue is whether Japan can defeat the Soviets but whether the Japanese can cause the Soviets to divert enough men and equipment to that front so that the Germans can prevail on the other front. Another issue is that by February, 1942, Japan is threatening Australia. The Aussie government wanted to bring home all their troops from the front in North Africa to prevent an invasion of Australia. Instead US troops were rushed to Australia. Without the US in the war, those troops would have to have been brought back home and could they get them home with the IJN controlling the sea and with Japanese air bases in the Solomons and perhaps even Ceylon?

[Amsel]

I am actually reading a book right now called Rising Sun Victorious which covers alot of this subject. I guess I'll devote more time to it. I tend to read 3-4 books at a time.

[Colin1]

Originally Posted by renrich

...I don't think an issue is whether Japan can defeat the Soviets but whether the Japanese can cause the Soviets to divert enough men and equipment to that front so that the Germans can prevail on the other front...

This factor is what largely underpins my argument
No US in the west means the Western front is secure in all but name - largely undiluted German field strength with which to hit the Soviet Union.
Japanese air and ground forces enter the USSR from the east and the IJN wreaking havoc with any supply attempts from the western allies (such as they are) - largely diluted Soviet field strength with which to counter the German offensive.
The Japanese do not need to defeat the Soviet Union, I suspect the Soviet commanders would know this but how to disregard the invasion from the east?

[renrich]

To add a little spice to the discussion, what if the Germans had treated the people in the occupied area of the Soviet Union humanely and the Japanese had done likewise in China. This scenario is starting to look scary.