Better German naval strategy 1930-1945?

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As a thread drift, the three I-400 class boats completed by Japan were the largest subs ever floated until the USS Nautilus atomic boat 1953. The three operated without incident in the Pacific and were only discovered by the Allies at surrender. I-403 was completed as a resupply ship to provide supplies to the bypassed islands and was never spotted.
 
Better German Naval strategy phase 1:

1. Do not cancel Panzerschiffe D.
The 1st batch of 28cm guns/turrets were already under construction so they're going to need to be used somewhere.​
You probably need to convert the guns from 28cm/54 back to the 28cm/52 found in Deutschland class so it doesn't require unique ammo.​
There was 6 months material worked into hull in slip/another 3 in process, there are contracts in place for the boilers/turbines that have huge penalties if cancelled and it will be a year before the plans for a Schlachtschiff will be ready - by that time the hull will be launched and the slip available. Raeder can't afford to throw a hull away just because it isn't perfect.​
2. Instead of Panzerschiffe E, lay down 2 additional repeat Leipzig class (Kreuzers G & H). Versailles requires using naval yards for construction - there are 3 slips available. Panzerschiffe D is in one so building G & H is possible (Grey on violation of Versailles; RM is just building additional cruisers using the Panzerschiffe allotment; somehow I doubt France/UK lose sleep over that). Technically with issues on K class, couple could be demilitarized for reconstruction so RM wouldn't have more than allotted 6 in service.
3. Instead of building 22 Zerstörer 1934/34a/36 boats and 10 Type 37/39 boats, build 32 Zerstörers of ~1938B class size: 2k tons std.)/4 x 1 - 12.7 guns/50k hp.
They might not match the French contre-torpilleurs but they would be better suited for the Baltic/North/Norwegian Seas. And with 32 destroyers (+ next batch on slips), the KM can afford to lose a handful without having to completely change operations. The historic yards can have completed and commissioned before invasion of Poland.​
4. Lay down the 1st Type II U-boats as per historic.

Laying down the U-boats, mass production of destroyers and demonstrating plans to start building battleships should be enough to ensure the historic AGNT - allowing Germany to build up to France's level. Remember, in '35, the enemy is France. If you think Poland and/or France will fold in 6 weeks, we've a padded room for you.

Panzerschiffe D and Kreuzers would still be fitting out when AGNT is signed so:

5. While Kreuzer G is completed as gun boat; convert Kreuzer H to Kleiner Flugzeugträger. Leipzig class hull in more/less same size as IJN Hōshō. KM needs carrier in '36 to learn what they don't know. Hōshō has enough 'interesting features' for KM figure out what they want in their future fleet boats (two level hanger aft, turrets/casements for surface defense, 2nd hanger for fighters, control tower/lack there of, etc.) The aft hanger on Hōshō is large enough to support 3 torpedo bombers <Fi-167> (wings folded) on each level/if Messerschmitt has Bf.108 wing fold added to Bf.109 v15 (Jumo engine with under cowl radiator, extended wings and other naval equipment), the forward hanger supports 6 fighters (Hōshō fit 9 Mitsubishi 1MF planes) For better/worse, this keeps KM from wasting 20k+ tons on Graf Zeppelin (Should keep both Goering and Raeder equally unhappy) Can always be converted back to gun boat when tonnage needed for fleet boats.

I'm still working on strategy for Battleships/Submarines (I've put the historic number of submarines down).
FranceGermany
Destroyers3432
Super Destroyers (Are they separate class or fast light cruisers?)32-
Torpedo Boats1412
Cruisers, Light117
Cruisers, Heavy73 (PBBs)
Battleships8 (6 WWI + 2 Dunkerque)3 (2 WWI+ Panzeschiffe D)
Aircraft Carriers11
Submarines86!51

Correction:
I thought about it overnight, while Panzerschiffe D was planned for 18k tons std., its probably going to come in heavy - there's no passing a ship off as a cruiser. Beside it passes duck test for capital ship: guns over 10", over 17k tons and capital expenditure by country. Getting an exception for the 28cm guns on PBBs should be possible - there are exemption for Hood, Lexingtons and not worth France going to war over.
 
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Very good, I like it. PBB/Panzerschiffe is a hair-raising thing for the RN, because they understood Zenker's intentions ie disruption of trade routes. (which was shown at the beginning of the war). It is much easier to reduce Germany to one of the signatories of international agreements than to give them space to think outside the box. (the purpose of this thread 😉).
Minor complaint - PBB/Panzerschiffe tonnage is included in the AGNA agreement as capital ships.
 
Correction:
I thought about it overnight, while Panzerschiffe D was planned for 18k tons std., its probably going to come in heavy - there's no passing a ship off as a cruiser. Beside it passes duck test for capital ship: guns over 10", over 17k tons and capital expenditure by country. Getting an exception for the 28cm guns on PBBs should be possible - there are exemption for Hood, Lexingtons and not worth France going to war over.

Minor complaint - PBB/Panzerschiffe tonnage is included in the AGNA agreement as capital ships.

Yes, I'm quite sure there's no way they'd be able to negotiate the PBB's to be classified as cruisers. Hood got the exemption largely because she was a pre-Jutland design not taking advantages of lessons thereof, and was to some extent considered obsolete already at launch. Being able to classify a newish 28cm armed ship as a cruiser would never have been accepted, just compare the shell weights and ranges of the 28cm gun with a heavy cruiser 20cm gun.

But, in a way it's all moot anyway. British estimates were that even if Germany built as fast as she could with no major hiccups, she would be able to reach the 35% limit of the AGNA by 1942 or 43. Germany kicked AGNA to the curb in 1939(?), and by that point they were nowhere close to the tonnage limits in any of the categories.
 

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